Robert at Jihad Watch ("dedicated to bringing public attention to the role that jihad theology and ideology plays in the modern world, and to correcting popular misconceptions about the role of jihad and religion in modern-day conflicts") considers the likely outcomes.
Money quote(s):
"I thought only greasy Islamophobes thought that the likely outcome in the Middle East would be Islamic states, not pluralistic Western-style democracies!"
It's actually a bit too early to tell, but it wouldn't be outrageous for me to suggest that at least one of the recent upheavels in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya will result an Islamic state, even if it turns out to be a mini-state in a devolved Libya.
"(T)here has never been and is not now an Islamic state that was democratic in the Western sense. Kemalist Turkey established a Western-style republic only by directly and openly restricting the political aspects of Islam. Maybe it will happen now that functioning democracies that guarantee equality of rights for non-Muslims and women, protect the freedom of speech and the freedom of conscience, and yet establish Islam as well, will emerge in the Middle East -- history is full of surprises.
But for that to happen, some aspects of Islamic law will not be implemented, and that will mean there will be pressure in those states from Islamic clerics who will find the new government, whatever its Islamic character, to be just as un-Islamic and hence unacceptable as the authoritarian regime it replaced. And that pressure will lead to continued unrest."
2 comments:
I think this is very, very dependent on the social, political and economic make up of the individual countries.
I am still not as worried about Egypt who have lived in "police state lite", had access to outside sources, could travel outside the country fairly easily and has deep connections with Europe. Islamists are going to have a tougher time selling their wares.
Tunisia and Libya are different problems. Tunisia is even poorer and less educated than Egypt. It has held onto it's anti-imperialist psyche since ejecting the French and the people are poorer which tends to lead to more devout religious life.
Libya is the worst simply because it is poor, uneducated and has been more suppressed than any of the other two states. Like Poland in the 80's, the only way people have been able to share an anti-regime message has pretty much been in the mosque. This tends to lead towards more conservative, faith based views of governance (see Poland's modern day struggle with religion and politics v. liberal society).
Tunisia, IIRC, actually has a relatively over-educated population for its size and state of development, which is part of its problem.
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