re: "My "War" Story"

Bubblehead at The Stupid Shall Be Punished ("keeping the blogosphere posted on the goings on of the world of submarines since late 2004... and mocking and belittling general foolishness wherever it may be found") shared his "war" story from OIF 1.

Money quote(s):

"CENTCOM headquarters normally had about 900 people assigned on PCS orders, but because they were running the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq they'd been augmented with about 3000 people on six month TAD orders. I got assigned to the Iraq Coalition Coordination Center and got put in charge of handling the financial aspects of supporting the Polish-led Multi-National Division (Central South) that was just arriving in country. The fact that I got assigned a job for which I had no training, and my turnover was spending a day with my predecessor who gave me his E-mail cache and a folder with a 2 page memo from Condi Rice saying we had $500 million in unbudgeted money to play with, a 4 page standard boilerplate agreement between the U.S. and Poland, and a 17 page agreement with no specifics between Poland and the other 22 countries involved -- none of which contained any mechanism for actually carrying out what they'd agreed to -- gave me my first inkling that the people running the war at the higher levels had no idea what they were doing. This was kind of a shock to me, because I'd always assumed that the Big Bosses knew what they were doing. It turns out that it was only the pockets of competence that existed at the O-4/O-5 level that enabled the war effort to function as well as it did from a staff perspective." (Bold typeface added for emphasis. - CAA.)

Bubblehead's account only confirms what became apparent at the lower, operational levels within OIF 1. No real plan for "Phase IV" other than the victory parade (but don't fly any U.S. flags) and the rose-petal "liberator" greeting.

Right.

(Oh, and I'd have to add the herculean competence that existed at the O-3 and E-8 levels that made all the O-4 & O-5's efforts worthwhile.)

"Despite having no training in finance, I set up the mechanisms for providing funding for the logistics support for the division of 10,000, got additional force protection set up less than a week before an unsuccessful suicide attack on an MND-CS base that probably would have caused extensive casualties had I not cut through the red tape, and realized that the Spaniards are among the most unreliable "allies" in the world. I came to understand that while you have to be pretty smart to make flag, there are no real intelligence requirements to make O-6" (Bold typeface added for emphasis. - CAA.)

Let me offer a belated thanks for helping to make that suicide attack an unsuccessful one, since I remember that morning quite well (and always will).

(Oh, and as for the Spaniards; the troops were great, the government that sent them not-so-much.)

"I realized that the American military really was trying to do what was best for the Iraqi people, and the higher-ups really did have no plans for a permanent occupation -- they had no real plans at all. I saw the original plans for the invasion that showed that Turkey's refusal to let the 4th ID move in from the north negated what would have otherwise been a brilliant encirclement campaign that would have closed the big hole in the lines north of Baghdad, through which most of the future insurgent leaders escaped. Hanlon's Razor was confirmed: "Never attribute to conspiracy that which can be adequately explained by incompetence"." (Bold typeface added for emphasis. - CAA.)

Given that, aside from the actual invasion of Iraq itself, everything to do with Iraq was either done as an improvisation, it's amazing things went as well as they did. Apparently, making things up "on the fly" is an American strength.

Still, it's not wise to rely upon this as a plan.

12/15

re: "If one Eurozone can't work - have Two (or more)"

Charles Crawford at his Blogoir ("A digital hybrid of blog and memoir presented on a daily basis, or not.") postulated that be more might better.

Money quote(s):

"The best chance for some sort of orderly outcome is to divide the Eurozone into two new currencies (Euro 1 - based on the deep logic of the old Hanseatic League which did well for 402 years! - and Euro 2), letting those countries which need a devaluation boost join Euro 2. If Germany heads Euro 1 and France Euro 2, the Franco-German axis can have a fine new job."

It reminds me of the Cold War story of some national leader or another saying he liked Germany so much he wanted two of them.

"What do we Europeans basically want? To get richer, live nicely and not fight.

There is no reason why this should not be achieved through a network of several smaller regional European Unions with customised levels of integration and mutually reinforcing basic trading and security relationships. This arrangement would also make further enlargement much easier - Turkey might become the core of a new Regional Union.

All the expensive and annoying central bureaucracy could be scaled back or even abolished - farewell, European Parliament. Legitimacy and public accountability within each Regional Union would soar, as the governing arrangements would be much less remote.

Above all such a scheme would not be brittle, subject to horrible institutional contortions as one sprawling Union tries to accommodate quite different needs, policies and cultures."

8/20

re: "Obama and Foreign Policy: Just Kidding"

Robert J. Avrech at Seraphic Secret examined the foreign affairs portfolio as the final year of presidential campaigning begins.

Money quote(s):

"The hard-left are unhappy because Obama has failed to close Gitmo, has not withdrawn fully from Iraq and Afghanistan, and has expanded George Bush’s excellent policy of assassinating jihadists by drone. The left, in a hissy fit, might stay home in November."

Fortunately (from their perspective), there are plenty of hot-button Leftist red-herrings, er, domestic issues that can be interjected into the campaign in an effort to a.) energize the Democratic base; and b.) attempt to split the Republican's various constituencies.

"Europe, a collection of welfare states, is melting; the Arab Spring is an Arab Winter; and China is building a such a formidable military machine that our Joint Chiefs are waking up in a cold sweat at four in the morning.

And of course Israel is being squeezed by the genocidal yearning Persians, the genocidal yearning Palestinians, and the Turks who have lots of experience with genocide having murdered 1 million Armenians in 1915.

(The Armenians are still waiting for the Turks to admit their guilt, apologize, and pay reparations. Good luck with that.)

American power and influence in the Middle East is negligible. Witness the Palestinian’s defiance of US policy in favor of the UN’s poisonous embrace." (Emphasis in original text. - CAA.)

None of these items has improved particularly since being written.

9/20

re: "There Was Never a Country Called Palestine"

Jerrold L. Sobel at American Thinker ("a daily internet publication devoted to the thoughtful exploration of issues of importance to Americans") examined the historical question of Palestine in a quantitative fashion.

Money quote(s):

"There is no Palestinian land, plain and simple. If there were, when would it have been founded, and by whom? What would its borders have been, and what about the name of its capital? What would its major cities have been? What would have constituted the basis of its economy? What form of government would it have lived under?

Was Palestine ever recognized as an entity by another country? By whom? What was the language of the country called Palestine? What was Palestine's religion? What was the name of its currency? Since there is no such country today, what caused her demise?"

I got nothin'.

"Pose these same questions regarding Israel and Jewish connection to this land, and except for the willfully blind and delusional -- of which, admittedly, there are many, each can be factually answered.

At no time in history has there ever been a nation called Palestine. During the Ottoman Empire, which lasted from 1299-1922 CE, the land dubbed by the Romans as Palestine was controlled by the Turks; there was never an outcry for a Palestinian State then. During the illegal annexation of Judea and Samaria by the Hashemite kingdom of Jordan subsequent to the 1949 Armistice and prior to 1967, there was never talk of "occupied territory" or a Palestinian State."

Still, the list of "nations" which have never had their own states is not a particularly short one. A further question would be under what conditions may (or should) such groups acquire their own nation-state?

2/12

re: "Palestine, Back to the Future"

Ted Belman at American Thinker ("a daily internet publication devoted to the thoughtful exploration of issues of importance to Americans") sidestepped the issue of mythological nationhood and lunges for a solution.

Money quote(s):

"There was a time when the lands now known as Israel (including Judea and Samaria and Gaza) and Jordan were called "Palestine." In fact, the Balfour Declaration of 1917 declared that "His Majesty's government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people."

There followed considerable cooperation between the Jews, represented by Chaim Weizmann, and the Arabs living in Mespotamia, now Iraq and Jordan, represented by Emir Feisal. As a result, the Feisal-Weizman Agreement was signed in January 1919, in which it was agreed that the Jews would get the lands lying west of the Jordan River watershed to the Mediterranean."

Fast forward to the end of World War I and Allied disposition of the Ottoman Empire's non-Turkish possessions.

"What remained was for the League of Nations to draw up the Palestine Mandate. Originally, the boundaries of Palestine included what is now Jordan, but a few months prior to the Palestine Mandate being passed by the League of Nations in September 1922, the Jews were told that they must consent to the removal of Jordan from the Jewish homeland if they wished the Mandate to be passed. And so they did, under duress."

Consider this slice one of a salami-slice strategy.

"Britain severed all lands lying east of the Jordan River from the Palestine Mandate and gave the lands to the Hashemites. It was first renamed Transjordan and then just Jordan."

So an Arab homeland was salami-sliced off of overall-Palestine, leaving a Jewish homeland.

(From which additional future Arab homelands may be sliced.)

"There followed many resolutions, wars, and peace processes, all designed to erode Jewish rights to the land described in the Palestine Mandate, and all to no avail. For all intents and purposes, the peace process is dead, and Abu Mazen, otherwise known as Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the PA, has refused to negotiate for the last three years.

This futile effort has resulted in a search for alternate solutions. Newt Gingrich went public with his newsworthy statement that "[w]e've had an invented Palestinian people, who are in fact Arabs, and were historically part of the Arab community." Gov Romney did him one better and said, "It's the Palestinians who don't want a two-state solution; they want to eliminate the State of Israel." Didn't they know that in our PC world, one is not supposed to declare that the emperor has no clothes? The fiction underlying the failed peace process is more important than the truth."

It's truly remarkable to see such prominent politicians depart from the popular narrative in this manner.

"The "Jordan is Palestine" solution has been mooted for decades. It is now gaining traction due in part to the Arab Spring, which began a year ago. Jordan now is feeling the tremors. The majority of Palestinian leaders in Jordan favor Jordan becoming a democratic/secular state. They have watched in dismay as similar forces in Egypt were overwhelmed by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists. They are determined not to share Egypt's fate. They are led by Mudar Zahran, the author of "Jordan's King and the Muslim Brotherhood: An Unholy Marriage." "

Consider that the majority of people in Jordan are indistinguishable from "Palestinian" Arabs in any appreciable fashion. And that's not counting the ones who are descended from those who left the Jewish homeland or the "Occupied Territories" of the West Bank and Gaza.

"The rationality and achievability of this solution need no elucidation. The solution itself needs only for the U.S. to get behind it. While such an initiative by the U.S. would be a departure from the position it has held since the founding of the State of Israel, it would not be a departure from her original position."

1/29

re: "Islam Is Islam, And That Is That"

Federale ("That Is The Sound Of Inevitability") remarked on willful blindness and those who promote it.

Money quote(s):

"Words of wisdom from Prime Minister Recep Erdogan of Turkey. Spencer Ackerman and Joe Lieberman seem to disagree. They think there are peaceful manifestations of Islam. Well, there are Muslims who don't practice their religion to varying degrees, but Islam is Islam; vile, warlike, dangerous, hateful, and bigoted against whites, Christians and Western Civilization.

However there has been much ado about recent FBI training that exposes Islam for what it is, Islam. The Danger Blog in particular is waging jihad against some who agree with Islamic scholars and political leaders like Erdogan who accept Islam for what it is; A warlike religion opposed to Christendom. And doing so violently.

Unlike DHS which views the threat to America as coming from white, Christian, heterosexual, gun owning veterans, the FBI has been ignoring PC and providing accurate information about Islam to its agents. That, of course, is unacceptable to the left, as Islam is a religion of peace."

Good for the FBI. You've got to get fairly well into the IC before you'll find folks (analysts and others) who'll call a spade a spade, there being since 9/11 the declaration from the White House on down that "Islam is a religion of peace."

Frankly, CAIR needs to be thought of as being the post-9/11 equivalent of the old German American Bund.

"(T)he FBI does not use Mafia attorneys to vet its organized crime training either. And wisely so, because just as so-called Italian-American groups denied the existence of the Mafia, and communist front groups denied that there was Soviet subversion in the U.S., Islamists deny that there is any radicalization problem among American Muslims, but Major Nidal Hassan, the Times Square Bomber, Najibullah Zazi, and the Arkansas Recruiter Shooter are just a few of the local Muslims that became radicalized by becoming more devout. The FBI training is not as Ackerman claims playing into the hand of Al Queda, but accurately describing the process of radicalization and its connection to the very nature of Islam. The more Muslim a Muslim, the more danger that Muslim presents to America."

CAA recently read a statistic (can't remember where, somewhere online) that at 80 percent of American mosques, visitors can get radical materials and propaganda. This should surprise no one except to note that 20 percent of may not be centers of Islamist radicalization.

9/18

re: "US Policy and the Middle East"

Dr. Jerry Pournelle at Chaos Manor ("The Original Blog*") had a recap of some Israeli-Palestianian issues.

Money quote(s):

"Any border between Israel and Palestine is going to be imposed, not "mutually agreed". If Obama does not know know this -- and it's very difficult to believe that he does not -- Secretary Clinton and the Foreign Service certainly do, as does most of Capitol Hill. There is not going to be any mutually agreed border between Palestine and Israel. There is not going to be any contiguous Palestinian state that unites Gaza and the West Bank. (The Camp David Accord proposal included an elevated railway and an elevated freeway between Gaza and Judea.) Israel is not going to give up the settlements, the Golan Heights, or the fortifications in the Jordan River Valley, nor will the IDF give up unmonitored and unrestricted access to the Jordan Valley. Israel does not have the resources to force the settlers to leave the West Bank. The IDF won't do it; the experience in Gaza was too traumatic. Nor could any Israeli government survive an hour after Palestinian police began forcibly removing Jewish settlers from homes around Bethlehem or in Samaria.

This is reality; but assume that somehow it happened and there were "mutually agreed swaps" leading to some kind of border: there remains the question of the refugees who claim a right of return. After the 1948 war, and again after the 1967 war, a number of Arabs fled Israel, in both cases at the encouragement of Arab governments. Most expected to return after the Arab victories. When those victories didn't materialize, they became refugees. How many is controversial, but a half million is a not unreasonable compromise. There are now more than a million who claim refugee status and a right of return to Israel. That includes the surviving original refugees and their lineal descendents including heirs to property to which they have a nearly indisputable title going back to the Turkish government that preceded the British League of Nations Mandate that created Trans-Jordan and Palestine. Some are Christians. I know some of these people. As one put it, "I know that the Germans did terrible things to those people, but I do not know why that gives them the right to my home." The home she describes is in the Jerusalem-Bethlehem corridor, and she grew up in it as a girl. Their family has always been Christian, and they claim descent from the original first generation baptized by the Apostles. Whatever the truth of that claim, they certainly owned that property under the Turks and under the British Mandate government, and it is certainly occupied by European born Jews whose title comes from the Israeli government. No compensation has ever been paid -- not that such compensation would be accepted. "It is not for sale. It has never been for sale."

That story can be multiplied by thousands. How many thousands is not clear. Some of the refugees are descendents of nomads of no fixed address -- much of Palestine in 1948 was undeveloped desert. Some have questionable origins or questionable titles to land in Israel. Discard all those of questionable status and there remain hundreds of thousands of genuine refugees displaced from land in pre-1967 Israel, and who claim a right of return. Add the the others whose status cannot be determined and the number climbs toward a million, perhaps more. While my friends have homes and jobs in Bethlehem (one is a physician married to another Palestinian who is legally resident in Jerusalem although he is not allowed to live there), most of those claiming refugee status live in poverty in refugee camps.

The Arab Israeli wars also produced tens to hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees, who were forced out of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Yemen, and other Arab lands. They fled to Israel, where they were absorbed into the Israeli economy and have long since ceased to have any kind of refugee status. That did not happen with the Arab refugees. They were put up in refugee camps and kept there. They were not absorbed into any Arab countries, and most of them remain stateless refugees" (Bold typeface added for emphasis. - CAA.)

re: "Obama administration preparing for Islamic states in Middle East"

Robert at Jihad Watch ("dedicated to bringing public attention to the role that jihad theology and ideology plays in the modern world, and to correcting popular misconceptions about the role of jihad and religion in modern-day conflicts") considers the likely outcomes.

Money quote(s):

"I thought only greasy Islamophobes thought that the likely outcome in the Middle East would be Islamic states, not pluralistic Western-style democracies!"

It's actually a bit too early to tell, but it wouldn't be outrageous for me to suggest that at least one of the recent upheavels in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya will result an Islamic state, even if it turns out to be a mini-state in a devolved Libya.

"(T)here has never been and is not now an Islamic state that was democratic in the Western sense. Kemalist Turkey established a Western-style republic only by directly and openly restricting the political aspects of Islam. Maybe it will happen now that functioning democracies that guarantee equality of rights for non-Muslims and women, protect the freedom of speech and the freedom of conscience, and yet establish Islam as well, will emerge in the Middle East -- history is full of surprises.

But for that to happen, some aspects of Islamic law will not be implemented, and that will mean there will be pressure in those states from Islamic clerics who will find the new government, whatever its Islamic character, to be just as un-Islamic and hence unacceptable as the authoritarian regime it replaced. And that pressure will lead to continued unrest."

re: "Mubarak Resigns"

Dr. Jerry Pournelle at Chaos Manor ("The Original Blog *") takes a long view, but with an eye to the immediate-to-near future.

Money quote(s):

"The Supreme Military Council now rules Egypt."

"We can wish the Egyptians well. Perhaps something good can come from all this. It is not impossible. Turkey emerged from turmoil and defeat and a secular Republic was built by the Young Turks headed by Mustapha Kemal Ataturk. That Republic endured and thrived, although there are signs that it is being transmogrified into an Islamic state, as witness the odd incident of the "peace flotilla" to Gaza."

&

"Egypt has its Army and the tradition of the Mamelukes.

And there are hundreds of thousands of people in Cairo. The foundation of the Egyptian economy is tourism. Food prices are rising. Food futures are up and rising. The first task of the Mamelukes will be to feed those people as they stand down from the public square. They will also need to feed the soldiers. They will also need to pay the soldiers: Bremer neglected to do that in Iraq, with the result that it has cost the US trillions."

re: "Austrian MP Tells Off Turkish Ambassador In Very Undiplomatic Terms"

Ace at Ace of Spades HQ has an interesting bit of video from the Austrian parliament.

HDN - Law allows foreigners to adopt Turk children

From my archive of press clippings:

Hurriyet Daily News

Law allows foreigners to adopt Turk children

Wednesday, March 18, 2009 07:55


ANKARA - Social services experts and psychologists have reacted positively to the new adoption arrangement in general, though some argue that cultural differences might create an adaptation problem depending on the child's age.

Read the whole article here.

Snippet(s):

"Parliament has approved a law permitting foreigners to adopt Turkish children, hoping it provides a better future for kids."

&

"Foreign nationals, including foreigners who live in Turkey and meet the criteria set by Turkish laws, will be able to adopt children from Turkey, according to the new law, which went into effect upon being published in the Official Gazette.

The new law seeks to benefit children and stipulates that Turkish families will be given priority when adopting."

S&S - Danish leader chosen for top NATO post

Stars and Stripes



Danish leader chosen for top NATO post


By Kevin Dougherty, Stars and Stripes

Mideast edition, Sunday, April 5, 2009


STRASBOURG, France — As summits go, this weekend’s gathering of NATO members seemed especially productive, with the alliance addressing a number of issues, from Afghanistan to the selection of a new secretary general.

Read the whole article here.

Snippet(s):

"The annual North Atlantic Treaty Organization meeting of heads of state tapped Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen to lead the alliance. He will succeed Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in August."

&

"Turkish officials were said to have been against his appointment for his alleged refusal to rebuke the 2005 publication of cartoons of the prophet Mohammed in a Danish newspaper, which many Muslims found offensive. In response to a question about the supposed controversy, French President Nicolas Sarkozy called Rasmussen "a democrat" and said there was "no reason for pre-conceived notions" about the Dane and his views toward Muslims or their revered prophet. "

TZ - US asks Turkey to join intelligence-sharing network.

From my archive of press clippings:

Today's Zaman

US asks Turkey to join intelligence-sharing network

The United States has asked Turkey to join an instant intelligence-sharing network to help fight terrorism.

29 May 2008, Thursday

SEDAT GÜNEÇ ANKARA

US Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff discussed the FBI-initiated program yesterday with Turkish Interior Minister Beşir Atalay during a visit to Ankara, officials said. Chertoff is expected to have further discussions with justice, defense and interior ministers as well as officials from the General Staff before wrapping up his visit today.

Read the whole article here.