re: "A Gutsy Post"

Frank J. at IMAO ("Unfair. Unbalanced. Unmedicated.") analyzes the gutsy call.

Money quote(s):

"(T)he left has decided the word for Obama’s is “gutsy.” That’s kind of weird since he made a call that most Americans would have made, so what’s gutsy about it? If you told a regular American, “So, do you want to get Osama or not get Osama?” they would think that’s a trick question. But for Obama, going with the obvious answer was gutsy."

On the face of it, Frank's assessment is valid. But let's drill down a little bit. You see, approving the operation is a little bit more than just deciding to take down UBL. And I'm not even talking about the diplomatic and political repercussions involved in going into Pakistan in order to do it.

A few short decades ago there was this thing called "Desert One." Google it, if you don't already know. The president is of an age, as I am myself, to remember Desert One from late-adolescence/early-adulthood. Desert One was where Operation Eagle Claw went wholly pear-shaped and the predecessors of what became "Delta Force" took a number of casualties. And that was before they'd even gotten to their objective in Tehran.

So there are consequences to be considered. Missions are not always assured of success, even if things don't go disasterously wrong (as they did at Desert One); what if the intelligence is wrong? What if UBL picks that particular night to sleep over at a friend's house? The list of what-ifs and what-could-go-wrongs is limited only by the imagination.

So I'm un-troubled, upon reflection, by those who give props to the commander-in-chief for making a "gutsy" call. The call was his to make, he made it, and it went well for the troops who executed it, went well for the president, and went quite badly for UBL.

"Obama will get a little bit of a bounce and deservedly so for taking out Osama, but I wouldn’t expect too much of it."

re: "A really bad day for bin Laden - and for Pakistan"

Robert Haddick at Small Wars Journal ("news and commentary on the goings on across the broad community of small wars practitioners, thought leaders, and pundits") cuts right to the essentials.

Money quote(s):

"The killing of Osama bin Laden is a satisfying triumph for Americans and the U.S. government. It would have been even more satisfying had it occurred in the weeks and months after the September 2001 attacks. But the fact that it took a decade to finally kill bin Laden should be warning to any who doubt the long memories and persistence of the U.S. government’s counterterrorism forces. They didn’t forget and they never stopped working on the problem.

The Joint Special Operations Command, presumably the command responsible for the mission, should get credit for demonstrating its ability to successfully raid targets virtually anywhere in the world. The CIA also gets credit for patiently developing the required intelligence and for reminding everyone of the value of battlefield captures, interrogations, and human intelligence." (Bold type added for emphasis. - CAA)

It was a job well done.

More than that, it was years of jobs well done and literally decades of capacity building from the disaster that was Desert One to today's robust and diverse special operations capacity.

"(T)his raid is a black day for Pakistan and its relationship with the United States. As the White House background briefing on the raid makes clear, the United States kept the raid completely concealed from the Pakistani government. Combine this with the fact that bin Laden was found in a highly protected compound in a wealthy town near Pakistan’s capital, and a stone’s throw from a Pakistani military academy. Americans will be right to conclude that Pakistan was bin Laden’s long-time friend and not America’s. What little support Pakistan still enjoys in Washington will now likely melt away. Pakistan will have to look to China, its last friend, for the support it will need to survive."

The political fallout from this will play out over the coming several years. Pakistan, as a unitary state, may not survive it; the hazards it faces are too numerous to mention.