re: "The FY13 Inactivation Schedule"

Galrahn at Information Dissemination ("The Intersection of Maritime Strategy and Strategic Communications") critiqued some planned decommissionings.

Money quote(s):

"Basically, those 11 ships represents an entire Carrier Strike Group and more. That is a lot of capability to retire in a single fiscal year. Obviously the Navy has no choice with USS Enterprise (CVN 65), the ship is going to run out of nuclear fuel and at over 50 years old. Also noteworthy, USS Crommelin (FFG 37), USS Underwood (FFG 36), USS Curts (FG 38), USS Carr (FFG 52), and USS Klakring (FFG 42) will all be over 30 years old at retirement. The Oliver Hazard Perry class was built to serve 30 years, and that the ships made it truly is a reminder to the sturdy nature of the Perry class frigate. The USS Reuben James (FFG 57) will only be about 28.5 years old at retirement, and I am unsure why the ship is being retired before 30 years."

Money, almost certainly. Money to run them, money to crew them.

"In my opinion, unless there are serious undisclosed material condition problems on these ships, this is a Bullshit Popsicle. The over 500 VLS cell missile capacity of these 4 warships exceed the combined missile capacity of the Royal Navy, the French Navy, the Italian Navy, the Spanish Navy, the Dutch Navy, the German Navy, the Turkish Navy, or the Danish Navy. These four ships are about equal in total missile capacity to the existing surface combatant force of the Royal Navy today.These ships have a decade of life in them and were on the verge of modernization towards becoming four of the most powerful surface combatants in the history of naval warfare - all four for less than half a billion dollars. When the reality is the Navy couldn't spend 6x that much money to build even one of these ships new today, and all of these ships can serve at least a decade, the retirement of these ships at a time the Navy has scarce money for new ships, and is already short on capable warships, makes no sense at all to me.

I privately hope these ships are legitimate pieces of rusted crap behind the scenes, because if they aren't, the Navy is retiring good ships way too early."

Hat tip to Drew M. at Ace of Spades HQ.


3/15

re: "BREAKING: Government Backed Protesters Storm US Embassy Grounds In Damascus . UPDATE: US Says Embassy Grounds Cleared Of Attackers"

DrewM. at Ace of Spades HQ remarked on a purely-spontaneous-mob attack.

Money quote(s):

"I have to admit, I wasn't thrilled when Obama decided to send an ambassador to Syria after Bush had left the post vacant for a few years in protest of the Assad regimes behavior. Honestly though, I like the cut of Ambassador Ford's jib.

Ford took an unauthorized visit to the town of Hamma and then went on facebook (yes, sounds lame but that's where the anti-government activist types are) to call out the regime."

Credit where credit is due, even from consistent critics of the administration.

Damascus is one of those places (I'm sure you can think of at least one other, they tend to be police/counterintelligence states) where "spontaneous mobs" don't just assemble out of nowhere and overwhelm the ubiquitous host nation security forces that surround Western diplomatic missions.

Some years ago, OBO bureau (Overseas Buildings Operations) got tired of having to wait months to get replacement forced entry/ballistic (FE/BR) glazings for the mission's exterior doors and windows out to Damascus every time the Assad regime would be annoyed or bored enough to bus in a "spontaneous mob" to trash the place.

(The FE/BR glazings are quite robust and well up to prevent any "spontaneous mob" members from breaching through them into our buildings, but they can get pretty messed up in the attempts, which rather interferes with the whole transparency thing you expect from an actual window. Marvels of American technological know-how that they are, you can't exactly run down to the Tent Depot and walk out with a replacement. They have to be custom-built at one of a handful of manufacturing companies in the U.S.)

So rather than have to wait months for a set of replacements every time Assad's "spontaneous mob" would visit, OBO got approval (and funding) to simply procure, and store in Syria, a set of replacement window glazings. That way they just had to install them as soon as it was safe to do so and re-order the damaged part, so the next time there was a "spontaneous mob" attack, they'd be ready.

So far as I know, Damascus is the only place we've ever had to do that.

(An expensive hobby (for us), these "spontaneous mob" attacks seem to be.)



7/11

re: "Obama's Absolutely Unbelievable Press Conference"

DrewM. at Ace of Spades HQ had a laundry list of observations.

They included:

"First...who is defending Gadaffi? No one.

Second...Remember when Obama demanded that Democrats like himself stop criticizing Bush over Iraq lest it send something other than "a unified message" to Saddam or al Qaeda in Iraq?

And finally...standing up for the constitutional role of Congress in matters of war and peace is a "cause célèbre". This is how the President of the United States views the constitutional responsibilities of a co-equal branch of government."

Old news in terms of NATO's Libyan intervention, but the war-powers issue isn't going to go away. It transcends the current administration and the roots of the current Constitutional dilemna reach back beyond the Gulf of Tonkin all the way to the Korean War.

6/29

re "Are The French Backing Down On Military Action In Libya?"

DrewM. at Ace of Spades HQ made an interesting prediction.

Money quote(s):

"So after going to war (yes, that's what it is) because France badgered us into it, we might get left holding the bag? Who could have seen that coming?

I'd say that the odds are better than 50/50 that before this is all over France surrenders to Libya and cedes some territory to it."

Qadhaf senior: dead. Qadhafi juniors: dead or imprisoned. Still, this story has chapters more to go.


7/ 11

re: "BREAKING: NATO Airstrike On Gaddafi Home Kills Son But Not Colonel Crazy"

DrewM. at Ace of Spades HQ questions the targeting.

Money quote(s):

"So, I'm still unclear if the purpose of the NATO mission is to topple the regime and/or kill Gaddafi or just protect civilians. I'm not a military expert but I'm not clear on how bombing someone's home protects civilians hundreds of miles away. Actually, I do (no Gaddafi, no danger) but I was told by the President that killing Gaddafi wasn't part of our military strategy. It's almost like Obama and the rest of the NATO leaders are saying one thing but acting very differently."

&

"Now suddenly talking out of your ass about policy and military goals is a good thing, Smart Diplomacy one might say.

Let's just be honest...we want this guy dead and we're going to kill him. Is that so hard?"

_____

Interestingly, the casualty list from this attack needs an update:

"Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi revealed that Col. Muammar Qaddafi’s son was not really killed by a NATO attack on the Gheddafi family compound. He says that intelligence information indicates that Khadafi fils was not even in Libya at the time of the attack, and that the Colonel’s grandchildren were also unharmed."

_____

Hat tip to Baron Bodissey at Gates of Vienna ("At the siege of Vienna in 1683 Islam seemed poised to overrun Christian Europe.We are in a new phase of a very old war.").

re: "Smart Diplomacy (By Other Means): Arab League "Ally" Criticizes Attacks In Libya"

Drew M. at Ace of Spades HQ watches how things fall apart, the center does not hold.

Money quote(s):

"We've heard how important Arab League support for the operation in Libya was and is. Supposedly its support was pivotal in getting the west moving and its participation would insulate us from charges of "imperialism" and "killing more Muslims"."

It's a nice fantasy; how's that working out for us?

"Apparently, the Arab League has a "Reset" button of its own."

They also, like the PLO and now various "Palestianian Authority" figures, have a tendency to say one thing in English and quite another for their Arabic language audiences.

"According to Obama and Clinton we're not leading this thing. That of course is absolute crap and the world can see it."

No really, NATO is in charge now. And the U.S. has as much to do with NATO's goings-on as it does with the U.N. Security Council's.

re: "Report: State Department Spokesman PJ Crowley Resigns"

Drew M. at Ace of Spades HQ notes a personnel change at the State Department.

Quote(s):

"Normally not that big of a deal but this guy is a real tool, even by the low standards one generally has for professional mouthpieces and people who work at the State Department."

Now, that's just mean. Like shooting a man's suit.

"Crowley's comments got lost in the bigger news of Libya and then Japan but his fate was pretty well sealed on Friday when Obama was asked about them and Manning's treatment in general."

"(P)utting the President in that spot is not a career enhancing move."

Drew's dislike of Crowley goes back to 2009, as he explains:

"If you follow the link, you'll see that I was not amused at the use of the word "debate" to describe the slaughter of peaceful protesters. My language was a tad bit harsh and somewhat unprofessional but I was infuriated at the time. In retrospect if I could do it over again...I"d use even harsher language.

Not that the next mouthpiece will be better or the policy they will be spinning for will be any more coherent but I'm happy to see this guy go."

re: "What's Involved In Setting Up A No-Fly Zone Over Libya? - DrewM."

Drew M. at Ace of Spades HQ is realistic about limitations on U.S. and Allied capabilities.

Money quote(s):

"From the military perspective, it's not impossible but it's not like we have a lot of extra capacity laying around in that part of the world."

Used to be we had something called a "fleet" on station in the Med, or do I mis-remember?

Even back in the "shores of Tripoli" days we'd have a squadron of frigates thereabouts.

"After surveying the help we might be able to get from our regional allies, CDRSalamander seems a bit more pessimistic about the available options."

"Would we give a station to our allies? Of the remaining
folks, GBR, ESP, & ITA have CVS, right? Well, the Brits don’t do CVS
counter-air anymore – and the Italians and Spanish carriers? How many sorties can they do? How about if they had a lot of land based fighter support? How many fighter aircraft need to be stationed at Sigonella supported by how many tankers to cover Tripoli? Same
question about Souda Bay and Benghazi. The British bases
on Cyprus?

UK officials said they could use of a British military air base in Akrotiri, Cyprus to enforce a no-fly mission. “Akrotiri would be very useful if we wanted to deploy,” said an official. “That would seem most logical.”Although fixed-wing aircraft appear to be depleted, British officials said the main concern was that Col Gaddafi could use helicopters to mount bombing raids on opponents."

"(T)he leader of the No Fly Zone idea is UK Prime Minister David Cameron. Good for him and all but it's rather hollow to hear this can of talk from the guy who has put the Royal Navy out of the power projection business.

Aircraft carriers are damn expensive to build, operate and man but they are damn handy things when you need one or three. We are at the bare minimum at the moment and as you can see, it's actually below the minimum."

As much as former dirt merchants like myself like to tweak my swabby friends about how carrier battle groups are something of a self-licking ice cream cone, they're darn useful things to have on the board when things like islands and air bases aren't conveniently located in terms of threats or operational areas.

"Gates talks a lot about how much is enough, especially in terms of carriers when no one else really has any to speak of. According to the Chief of Naval Operations, we need at least 2 to cover the Persian Gulf, 5th Fleet area alone for the foreseeable future. If you want to start cutting them, you better let the CNO and head of Central Command what operations you want them to stop doing. And oh yeah, when the shit hits the fan, don't ask, "Where are the carriers"?"

And if you need two carriers for the Persian/Arabian Gulf, basic logisitics means you need a third one. Multiply that by "the world" and the numbers needed start to climb. Then add in all the other surface and support ships needed to make a carrier task force more than one big target.

re: "President Silent on Libya Due To (Pause To Gulp Water) "Scheduling Issue""

Ace at Ace of Spades HQ is critical of the president's (earlier) silence.

Money quote(s):

"Good Reason? DrewM. points out that Americans are being evacuated from Libya:

Supposedly it's because Americans are being evacuated
today and the worry is Kadaffey would grab them.

Not sure how much I believe that but let's see what
happens this evening when they are clear.

Ah. Well, that would be a very good reason to delay a statement. I'm with Drew in taking a wait-and-see attitude then, I guess. I confess I hadn't considered that and now that I do my criticism is half-cocked.

I'll wait for the evacuation. (Although, seriously, this didn't already begin and end?)"

re: "What If We Won A War And No One Cared?"

Drew M. at Ace of Spades HQ put Iraq into nation-building perspective.

Money quote(s):

"Iraq has been at a tipping point for awhile and probably will be for some time into the future. So was America a long, long time ago. It's a comparison that can be taken to far but the fact remains, no nation rises or falls in a straight line. There are ups and downs, success and failures. The final outcome for Iraq will not be known for years, probably decades. It is up to the Iraqis to decide that outcome and it always has been. It's a country with a lot of history going against it but thanks to hundreds of thousands of men and women (and their families) who served in the US military, they have an opportunity to build something reasonably decent by the standards of that part of the world and if they succeed, it will be of immeasurable benefit to us.

Far too many people were wrong about the Iraq War and don't have the decency to admit it now."

&

"In the meantime, the least we can do is remember what they did, celebrate their victory and challenge those who would deny what these heroes accomplished for our country."

re: "Obama: You Know, We Might Want To Start Thinking About Comprehensive Immigration Reform"

Drew M. at Ace of Spades HQ considers the timing.

Money quote(s):

"Considering that immigration isn't exactly a front burner issue for most people, this is clearly an effort to get the Democratic base, especially Hispanic voters, energized. After a year of issues that unite Republicans and divide Democrats (Cap and Trade, Health Care, Afghanistan, etc.), the White House must desperately want to put something on the table that divides Republicans for a change. Yes, there are some members of the Democratic coalition that oppose immigration reform, though labor has come along recently, but it's still a more divisive issue for Republicans and conservatives."