re: "How about a “You can’t handle the truth!” Commission?"

Karl at Patterico's Pontifications ("Harangues that Just Make Sense") evaluates the likelihood.

Money quote(s):

"Pres. Obama does not want a “truth commission” looking into the Bush Administration’s harsh interrogation of high-value enemy combatants. People may think his flip-flop on having the Justice Dept. look into the matter is a cave to hysterical, Sullivan-esque self-soilers, but that is only half-accurate. The point of fobbing this issue off on Holder & Co. is precisely to try to remove everyone else from the equation, including the media. This was a common tactic of the Clinton Administration: “Sorry, as you know, this matter is under investigation, so I am not at liberty to comment.”"

&

"(C)riminal charges against the lawyers who drafted the interrogation memos is exceedingly unlikely. The case for pursuing war crimes charges is only marginally better. The waterboarding that went on here is not the “water cure” administered by US soldiers in the Philippines, or the Asano war crimes case, both of which involved pouring water directly into the mouths and noses of subjects, which is considerably more harsh and dangerous.

The Democrats know as much as anyone that this issue already polls badly with likely voters. Trying to pretend that the Bush Administration was like the Third Reich simply would not play with anyone less unhinged than the Andrew Sullivans of the world (who would likely end up disappointed with the outcome). If Congressional Democrats pursue this, it will most likely be with the expectation that the GOP would rise to prevent any sort of bipartisan effort, allowing the Dems to retreat, while blaming the GOP."