Hugh Hewitt at the Hewitt Blog is not being too alarmist.
Money quote(s):
"Right now the late '70s are back in reruns with Egypt playing the role of Iran. At a minimum, increase the security at the U.S. Embassy."
Not to be too snarky, but I'm curious what exactly are the sort of measures Mr. Hewitt had in mind for this.
Think about it. Seriously. Airports closed. Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating in the area where the embassy is located. Tanks in the streets.
Basic questions like what sort of security, where does it come from, how does it get there, is it supportable and for how long?
Trust me, there are people whose professions are to ask, and have the answers, for this sort of thing.
Friday, January 28, 2011
re: "Undiplomatic"
Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex.") has his hat off to the State Dept.
Money quote(s):
"Davis was actually driving the vehicle as he shot back at the gunmen. Which is harder than it looks.
So, hats off to the foreign service and their unexpectedly high standards of marksmanship!"
Money quote(s):
"Davis was actually driving the vehicle as he shot back at the gunmen. Which is harder than it looks.
So, hats off to the foreign service and their unexpectedly high standards of marksmanship!"
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Re: " “There Is No Birth Certificate In Hawaii” "
Rand Simberg at Transterrestrial Musings ("Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!") muses about recent non-developments and non-discoveries by the governor of Hawaii.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Re: "A New Twist in Obama Birth Certificate Mystery"
Pamela Geller at Atlas Shrugs ("bringing you the news you will not hear from the mainstream media, providing original reportage, covering little-reported events of great import, and giving an unblinkingly honest examination of global affairs") has some speculative analysis on this subject.
Just some more "best guesses" by folks who don't know anything the rest of don't already know, but at least they aren't totally off-the-rails about it.
Just some more "best guesses" by folks who don't know anything the rest of don't already know, but at least they aren't totally off-the-rails about it.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
re: "Indefinite detention: We knew this was coming"
TigerHawk ("thoughts of the day on international affairs, politics, things that strike us as hilarious and personal observations") has some news about unlawful, er, indefinite detention.
Money quote(s):
"(T)he Bush administration was not taking all that flack for nothing, and that there is no practical alternative in dealing with unlawful combatants in a stateless war."
&
"The sophisticated media also knew, of course, but was never going to admit it."
Money quote(s):
"(T)he Bush administration was not taking all that flack for nothing, and that there is no practical alternative in dealing with unlawful combatants in a stateless war."
&
"The sophisticated media also knew, of course, but was never going to admit it."
re: "The Effects of WikiLeaks on Those Who Work at the State Department"
Samuel Witten at Opinio Juris ("a forum for informed discussion and lively debate about international law and international relations") has written the best two-paragraph explanation of a cable that I've ever seen.
Money quote(s):
"The diplomatic cable, a tool used by many governments, provides an official channel for U.S. diplomats abroad to report back to Washington and for Washington to instruct diplomats on how to approach relationships with foreign governments, the public overseas, international organizations and many other audiences. Many cables to and from our diplomatic posts include analyses of complex issues of foreign policy and diplomacy. Others provide candid recommendations of ways to advance U.S. interests against steep odds in dangerous and uncertain places. Some seek urgent guidance and identify sensitive information and options to address contingencies. Others offer insights into the character and motivations of foreign leaders, potential U.S. allies and opponents, opposition political parties, human rights activists, and dissidents.
Cables are a fundamental part of the State Department’s core culture, an essential component of how State Department diplomats and lawyers do business. The process of obtaining “clearance” on a proposed cable within the State Department (or from other concerned federal agencies) ensures that messages and instructions reflect all of the interests at stake and have the benefit of cumulative experience. Cables also create an official, historical record of the U.S. Government’s international actions and help ensure accountability for decisions."
"When overseas, I sent cables discussing and analyzing meetings or negotiations I attended or seeking guidance from Washington on possible options and instructions. When in Washington, where I was based, I made every effort to ensure that our outgoing cables were clear and detailed enough that colleagues around the world would benefit from precise analysis and assistance.
Damage from WikiLeaks disclosures go well beyond the immediate consequences reported in the media. The releases undermine the essential ability of our foreign affairs professionals to do their jobs. The leaks compromise the acquisition and flow of information around the world, reduce the effectiveness of our international outreach, and may put lives at risk."
"Putting aside the anti-Americanism of some supporters, there are those who suggest that the leaks promote a kind of openness, giving the public a better understanding of how diplomacy operates and clarifying the interests and goals of the United States and foreign governments. Some may argue that the knowledge of a potential leak – which always exists – may enhance the analytic and reportorial rigor of our diplomats abroad. In this respect, some suggest that the cables, overall, provide an advertisement for a State Department full of excellent professionals advocating and defending American interests around the world. There is certainly much truth in the latter. But to the extent there is any value in these public disclosures, that value, in my opinion, is far outweighed by the substantial negative impacts."
&
"The U.S. has aggressively sought to contain the diplomatic and strategic damage resulting from WikiLeaks disclosures. In this respect, any negative consequences for U.S. foreign policy that have resulted from WikiLeaks could well be compounded by additional disclosures, but may be ameliorated in many cases by the passage of time and subsequent events. Similarly, some of the negative professional and practical consequences at the State Department and in our international relations will improve over time.
That said, the profound unease and anxiety about the breach in our system through the unauthorized leaks may never disappear entirely. For the foreseeable future, foreign officials and private persons will understandably be worried about whether their dialogues with the State Department will be secure. Some candor and critiques by our own professionals may go unwritten or held in narrow channels of distribution."
If no one is willing to talk to us, we’re not going to be able to do much in the way of promoting mutual understanding. Or much of anything else.
The impact of this simply can’t be over-stated. No one can possibly believe their identities and the information they provide us will be held in confidence. We simply will no longer be trusted to pass information to the right ears and no further.
Any cable-drafter already knows that the potential readership of any given cable is quite large. Potentially, anyone within (and in some case outwith) the State Dept. possessing the right accesses could become a reader, either today or next week, next month, or next year. Cables are forever, communications-of-record; if nothing else their contents will become summarized and encapsulated in reports which trickle ever upwards.
Nothing levels our side of the playing field quite so drastically as when our mail is being read, even long after the fact. Candor and plain-talking are essential or you’re just spinning your wheels.
Time and again I’ve instructed report-writers to tell the facts, what they know and how they know it, what they saw and heard, as distinct from what they think and deduce from it (but include that too, clearly differentiated) and let “higher” do the second-guessing from their position of access to a wider ranger of information. Don’t self-adjudicate.
I must confess I’ve done this myself, pre-Wikileaks. Not writing everything I know or have heard about something, but passing the information (less the specific identity of a source) to “higher” through channels as secure (actually, in hindsight much more secure) as cable traffic but without the same paper trail. I thought I was just being paranoid about protecting my sources, but it’s true what they say: Paranoia Is Its Own Reward.
It also deprives “higher” with the fuller appreciation of that information which knowing the actual source can provide.
Money quote(s):
"The diplomatic cable, a tool used by many governments, provides an official channel for U.S. diplomats abroad to report back to Washington and for Washington to instruct diplomats on how to approach relationships with foreign governments, the public overseas, international organizations and many other audiences. Many cables to and from our diplomatic posts include analyses of complex issues of foreign policy and diplomacy. Others provide candid recommendations of ways to advance U.S. interests against steep odds in dangerous and uncertain places. Some seek urgent guidance and identify sensitive information and options to address contingencies. Others offer insights into the character and motivations of foreign leaders, potential U.S. allies and opponents, opposition political parties, human rights activists, and dissidents.
Cables are a fundamental part of the State Department’s core culture, an essential component of how State Department diplomats and lawyers do business. The process of obtaining “clearance” on a proposed cable within the State Department (or from other concerned federal agencies) ensures that messages and instructions reflect all of the interests at stake and have the benefit of cumulative experience. Cables also create an official, historical record of the U.S. Government’s international actions and help ensure accountability for decisions."
"When overseas, I sent cables discussing and analyzing meetings or negotiations I attended or seeking guidance from Washington on possible options and instructions. When in Washington, where I was based, I made every effort to ensure that our outgoing cables were clear and detailed enough that colleagues around the world would benefit from precise analysis and assistance.
Damage from WikiLeaks disclosures go well beyond the immediate consequences reported in the media. The releases undermine the essential ability of our foreign affairs professionals to do their jobs. The leaks compromise the acquisition and flow of information around the world, reduce the effectiveness of our international outreach, and may put lives at risk."
"Putting aside the anti-Americanism of some supporters, there are those who suggest that the leaks promote a kind of openness, giving the public a better understanding of how diplomacy operates and clarifying the interests and goals of the United States and foreign governments. Some may argue that the knowledge of a potential leak – which always exists – may enhance the analytic and reportorial rigor of our diplomats abroad. In this respect, some suggest that the cables, overall, provide an advertisement for a State Department full of excellent professionals advocating and defending American interests around the world. There is certainly much truth in the latter. But to the extent there is any value in these public disclosures, that value, in my opinion, is far outweighed by the substantial negative impacts."
&
"The U.S. has aggressively sought to contain the diplomatic and strategic damage resulting from WikiLeaks disclosures. In this respect, any negative consequences for U.S. foreign policy that have resulted from WikiLeaks could well be compounded by additional disclosures, but may be ameliorated in many cases by the passage of time and subsequent events. Similarly, some of the negative professional and practical consequences at the State Department and in our international relations will improve over time.
That said, the profound unease and anxiety about the breach in our system through the unauthorized leaks may never disappear entirely. For the foreseeable future, foreign officials and private persons will understandably be worried about whether their dialogues with the State Department will be secure. Some candor and critiques by our own professionals may go unwritten or held in narrow channels of distribution."
If no one is willing to talk to us, we’re not going to be able to do much in the way of promoting mutual understanding. Or much of anything else.
The impact of this simply can’t be over-stated. No one can possibly believe their identities and the information they provide us will be held in confidence. We simply will no longer be trusted to pass information to the right ears and no further.
Any cable-drafter already knows that the potential readership of any given cable is quite large. Potentially, anyone within (and in some case outwith) the State Dept. possessing the right accesses could become a reader, either today or next week, next month, or next year. Cables are forever, communications-of-record; if nothing else their contents will become summarized and encapsulated in reports which trickle ever upwards.
Nothing levels our side of the playing field quite so drastically as when our mail is being read, even long after the fact. Candor and plain-talking are essential or you’re just spinning your wheels.
Time and again I’ve instructed report-writers to tell the facts, what they know and how they know it, what they saw and heard, as distinct from what they think and deduce from it (but include that too, clearly differentiated) and let “higher” do the second-guessing from their position of access to a wider ranger of information. Don’t self-adjudicate.
I must confess I’ve done this myself, pre-Wikileaks. Not writing everything I know or have heard about something, but passing the information (less the specific identity of a source) to “higher” through channels as secure (actually, in hindsight much more secure) as cable traffic but without the same paper trail. I thought I was just being paranoid about protecting my sources, but it’s true what they say: Paranoia Is Its Own Reward.
It also deprives “higher” with the fuller appreciation of that information which knowing the actual source can provide.
Last Week's Links
Joerg Wolf at Atlantic Review ("A Press Digest for Transatlantic Affairs") in "The U.S. is increasingly looking to new partners."
Money quote(s):
"For the European Union stating the obvious is already progress."
So it is.
-----
Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex. Enjoy!") in "Now Comes the Purge."
Money quote(s):
"(A)ll work is easy if somebody else has to do it."
If at first you don't succeed, don't worry about it: someone else will do it for you.
"(O)ne of the joys of punditry: One need only have a strongly held opinion, not any subject matter expertise."
CAA really tries, you understand, to opine on those subjects he actually knows something about.
"The general is targeted because he gave his soundest military advice, based upon decades of personal experience, to the National Command Authority, as he was duty bound to do."
So are we all, by our oaths of office, duty bound to give the best professional opinions we can provide, not merely parrot whatever the popular party line or flavor of the month might be.
&
"It is not enough for Mr. Cohen to win the policy fight. Those who opposed him cannot have done so from any principled standpoint, and they are therefor unfit to serve. The ranks must be purged."
-----
Lt.Col P at OPFOR ("Fair Specimens of Citizen Soldiers") at "Marine Corps Commandant Has To Stay."
Money quote(s):
"I detect also a note of good-war-ism; you know, those old WWII movies were great because WWII was the last good war, not what we have today with these awful provincial people and their tacky state university degrees who beat up on various Third Worlders and refuse to love gays."
WWII was also the last good war, in certain circles, because the socialists (at least of the non-NDSAP variety) were on the same side as the U.S., (at least once the national socialists in Germany launched their attack on the soviet socialists in Russia and her near-abroad).
(Until they did that, at least once Stalin and Hitler had made their mutual non-aggression pact, WWII wasn't a "good" war at all.)
(History matters. Especially the inconvenient kind.)
"(T)hose of us who have served know that Hollywood can't match reality, and that the real soldiers and Marines in the platoons aren't simply pets or mascots for the chattering classes."
Remind me to discuss the whole "hero" phenomenon sometime.
"When he writes "education and training" what he really means is "re-education and indoctrination." Those who lived through the purge-trial aftermath of Tailhook will know what I mean."
Active duty personnel can look forward to eve more hours and hours of mandatory "homosexual awareness" training. Yes, that's what it's actually called and has been going on since Pres. Clinton signed DADT into law way back when.
Good thing nobody needed any of those training hours to prepare them to fight a war or anything.
"The Commandant is stating his considered professional opinion that repeal of this law will have a detrimental effect on the combat readiness of his service, and furthermore that doing so during active overseas operations is a particularly ill-conceived course of action. Remember how long this man has been in uniform, and the positions he has held. He understands his Corps, and what makes it tick, and he has been entrusted with shepherding it through the next four years of war."
&
"Unit cohesion keeps the force together when things aren't going well. Unit cohesion is born of hundreds of Americans dedicated to a single cause, welded together into a fighting instrument by hard realists who do sometimes hold contrary opinions. But what has no place in the realm of unit cohesion, or of any aspect of combat readiness, is compulsory acceptance of behaviors that most find distracting at best and deviant at worst. The gay soldier or Marine who subordinates his behavior for the greater good of his unit gets treated like a soldier or Marine, like one of the family."
-----
Uncle Jimbo at Blackfive in "Concealed carry is counterterrorism."
Money quote(s):
"We simply do not have the resources to expect that we will have police wherever the terrorists decide to attack us. They have obviously figured out that our soft underbelly is nationwide. What is going to happen when the jihadi maroons stop failing at bomb-building and decide to succeed at firing a gun into a crowd? Ignorant as these goat-raping clowns are, they can pull that off. At that point any who is not armed is a victim in waiting. But if the swine happen to hit a food court at the Mall where I am having a snack, it will turn out quite differently.
At the risk of revealing my true arrogance, I do not recognize the right of any individual or group to disarm me. So regardless of what rules petty bureaucrats may enact, I will retain my right to self defense."
Which is why the terrorists will lose against us in the end. Badly.
"This type of response is most likely to happen in red state areas and if the jihadis had any intellectual firepower they would concentrate their efforts in Chicago, NYC and DC where the government has disarmed the populace."
&
"The bottom line is that when seconds count the police are minutes away. Yet the unorganized militia is all around, kinda like the Founders figgered."
Personally, I prefer the formulation "Militia of One."
-----
Bing West at the Small Wars Journal blog ("facilitates the exchange of information among practitioners, thought leaders, and students of Small Wars, in order to advance knowledge and capabilities in the field") in "Bigotry as Opportunism."
Money quote(s):
"Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen wrote that the Commandant of the Marine Corps “is one step short of being a bigot.” Cohen, who strongly supports homosexuals in the military, insisted that the Commandant be fired because he held a different view. According to the dictionary, ‘a bigot is one who is strongly attached to his view of politics and intolerant of those who differ.’ It is Cohen, not the Commandant of Marines, who defines the word bigot."
"His column is a clarion call to incite the very divisiveness the legislation was intended to expunge."
&
"The best way to treat a bigot is to ignore his opportunistic self-promotion. Let the Washington Post correspondents who risk their lives alongside Marines deal with Cohen and his warped journalistic ethics."
-----
Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex. Enjoy!") in "Green Light."
Money quote(s):
"Ivy League schools provided the services with gifted officers for the front lines, many of whom served heroically in combat before coming home, tempered by both experiences, to build a great nation. It also provided undergraduate students who lacked the money and connections a fully-funded opportunity for a first rate education at our country’s flagship universities. All of that ended at certain Ivies during the culture turmoils of the late 1960s."
The Ivies have a golden opportunity to make themselves relevant again to the nation beyond the academic ghettos and law firms of the Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Washington corridor. Or they can simply beclown themselves in an orgy of self-parody. I expect a mixed set of results, with perhaps a third of them taking the opportunity to redeem themselves.
"Now that the dreadful discrimination of DADT has been swept into the ash bin of history, the rationale for the prohibition against on-campus ROTC has lost whatever veneer of plausibility it once held."
And a thin veneer that was, a mere vapor of substance.
&
"(I)t is not just the military who have shifted south (and west). The country is doing so, or at least those who can afford to; those who are not immobilized by joblessness or the paucity of after-tax income traceable to Ivy League social and economic theories. Both the working and entreprenurial classes have seen what modern day political liberalism has to offer and are voting with their feet. The heart of America is shifting south, and it does not much surprise that the military is moving with them.
As for the Ivies, it appears the rest of us have decided that, when it comes to building and defending our nation, we might just have to do it without them."
Relevance, to coin a phrase, matters.
Money quote(s):
"For the European Union stating the obvious is already progress."
So it is.
-----
Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex. Enjoy!") in "Now Comes the Purge."
Money quote(s):
"(A)ll work is easy if somebody else has to do it."
If at first you don't succeed, don't worry about it: someone else will do it for you.
"(O)ne of the joys of punditry: One need only have a strongly held opinion, not any subject matter expertise."
CAA really tries, you understand, to opine on those subjects he actually knows something about.
"The general is targeted because he gave his soundest military advice, based upon decades of personal experience, to the National Command Authority, as he was duty bound to do."
So are we all, by our oaths of office, duty bound to give the best professional opinions we can provide, not merely parrot whatever the popular party line or flavor of the month might be.
&
"It is not enough for Mr. Cohen to win the policy fight. Those who opposed him cannot have done so from any principled standpoint, and they are therefor unfit to serve. The ranks must be purged."
-----
Lt.Col P at OPFOR ("Fair Specimens of Citizen Soldiers") at "Marine Corps Commandant Has To Stay."
Money quote(s):
"I detect also a note of good-war-ism; you know, those old WWII movies were great because WWII was the last good war, not what we have today with these awful provincial people and their tacky state university degrees who beat up on various Third Worlders and refuse to love gays."
WWII was also the last good war, in certain circles, because the socialists (at least of the non-NDSAP variety) were on the same side as the U.S., (at least once the national socialists in Germany launched their attack on the soviet socialists in Russia and her near-abroad).
(Until they did that, at least once Stalin and Hitler had made their mutual non-aggression pact, WWII wasn't a "good" war at all.)
(History matters. Especially the inconvenient kind.)
"(T)hose of us who have served know that Hollywood can't match reality, and that the real soldiers and Marines in the platoons aren't simply pets or mascots for the chattering classes."
Remind me to discuss the whole "hero" phenomenon sometime.
"When he writes "education and training" what he really means is "re-education and indoctrination." Those who lived through the purge-trial aftermath of Tailhook will know what I mean."
Active duty personnel can look forward to eve more hours and hours of mandatory "homosexual awareness" training. Yes, that's what it's actually called and has been going on since Pres. Clinton signed DADT into law way back when.
Good thing nobody needed any of those training hours to prepare them to fight a war or anything.
"The Commandant is stating his considered professional opinion that repeal of this law will have a detrimental effect on the combat readiness of his service, and furthermore that doing so during active overseas operations is a particularly ill-conceived course of action. Remember how long this man has been in uniform, and the positions he has held. He understands his Corps, and what makes it tick, and he has been entrusted with shepherding it through the next four years of war."
&
"Unit cohesion keeps the force together when things aren't going well. Unit cohesion is born of hundreds of Americans dedicated to a single cause, welded together into a fighting instrument by hard realists who do sometimes hold contrary opinions. But what has no place in the realm of unit cohesion, or of any aspect of combat readiness, is compulsory acceptance of behaviors that most find distracting at best and deviant at worst. The gay soldier or Marine who subordinates his behavior for the greater good of his unit gets treated like a soldier or Marine, like one of the family."
-----
Uncle Jimbo at Blackfive in "Concealed carry is counterterrorism."
Money quote(s):
"We simply do not have the resources to expect that we will have police wherever the terrorists decide to attack us. They have obviously figured out that our soft underbelly is nationwide. What is going to happen when the jihadi maroons stop failing at bomb-building and decide to succeed at firing a gun into a crowd? Ignorant as these goat-raping clowns are, they can pull that off. At that point any who is not armed is a victim in waiting. But if the swine happen to hit a food court at the Mall where I am having a snack, it will turn out quite differently.
At the risk of revealing my true arrogance, I do not recognize the right of any individual or group to disarm me. So regardless of what rules petty bureaucrats may enact, I will retain my right to self defense."
Which is why the terrorists will lose against us in the end. Badly.
"This type of response is most likely to happen in red state areas and if the jihadis had any intellectual firepower they would concentrate their efforts in Chicago, NYC and DC where the government has disarmed the populace."
&
"The bottom line is that when seconds count the police are minutes away. Yet the unorganized militia is all around, kinda like the Founders figgered."
Personally, I prefer the formulation "Militia of One."
-----
Bing West at the Small Wars Journal blog ("facilitates the exchange of information among practitioners, thought leaders, and students of Small Wars, in order to advance knowledge and capabilities in the field") in "Bigotry as Opportunism."
Money quote(s):
"Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen wrote that the Commandant of the Marine Corps “is one step short of being a bigot.” Cohen, who strongly supports homosexuals in the military, insisted that the Commandant be fired because he held a different view. According to the dictionary, ‘a bigot is one who is strongly attached to his view of politics and intolerant of those who differ.’ It is Cohen, not the Commandant of Marines, who defines the word bigot."
"His column is a clarion call to incite the very divisiveness the legislation was intended to expunge."
&
"The best way to treat a bigot is to ignore his opportunistic self-promotion. Let the Washington Post correspondents who risk their lives alongside Marines deal with Cohen and his warped journalistic ethics."
-----
Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex. Enjoy!") in "Green Light."
Money quote(s):
"Ivy League schools provided the services with gifted officers for the front lines, many of whom served heroically in combat before coming home, tempered by both experiences, to build a great nation. It also provided undergraduate students who lacked the money and connections a fully-funded opportunity for a first rate education at our country’s flagship universities. All of that ended at certain Ivies during the culture turmoils of the late 1960s."
The Ivies have a golden opportunity to make themselves relevant again to the nation beyond the academic ghettos and law firms of the Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Washington corridor. Or they can simply beclown themselves in an orgy of self-parody. I expect a mixed set of results, with perhaps a third of them taking the opportunity to redeem themselves.
"Now that the dreadful discrimination of DADT has been swept into the ash bin of history, the rationale for the prohibition against on-campus ROTC has lost whatever veneer of plausibility it once held."
And a thin veneer that was, a mere vapor of substance.
&
"(I)t is not just the military who have shifted south (and west). The country is doing so, or at least those who can afford to; those who are not immobilized by joblessness or the paucity of after-tax income traceable to Ivy League social and economic theories. Both the working and entreprenurial classes have seen what modern day political liberalism has to offer and are voting with their feet. The heart of America is shifting south, and it does not much surprise that the military is moving with them.
As for the Ivies, it appears the rest of us have decided that, when it comes to building and defending our nation, we might just have to do it without them."
Relevance, to coin a phrase, matters.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Happy New Year!
It's that time again.
Time for resolutions.
Time for predictions.
Lessee what's in the bag-o-tricks today......
Resolved: Try (try, try, try, really try) to be a better person. A better husband, a better officer, just better.
(Better doesn't necessarily mean nicer.)
Predictions:
Prediction #1. The economy will improve. Or at least stabilize. It won't be worse than it is now in twelve months time.
The greatest American political invention of them all wasn't really the filibuster or gerrymandering or even a written bill of rights. It was checks and balances among the three co-equal branches of government combined with a bicameral legislature.
So rather than a single economic politico-ideology driving the national economy off of a cliff, and then doing it again, and then doing it again, and then doing it again.... so rather than that, for another year in a row, instead of that there's going to be some economic stability. And from that stability will come recovery.
(Actually, I believe a written bill of rights was truly the greatest of American political inventions, but work with me here.)
Prediction #2. In Hollywood, some other directors than the those who just remade True Grit will try their hand at making westerns. Some will be remakes. Others new. The ones which bow the least in the direction of current fashions in political correctness will do best at the box office.
Prediction #3. The SecState will make a major announcement regarding her political future which will surprise only those who haven't followed her political career to date.
(No, I have no insider knowledge of this; I'm just making a prediction here.)
Prediction #4. North Korea will do something outrageous which kills a bunch of people, most likely South Koreans. And be rewarded for it.
(Item: actions or behavior which are rewarded or subsidized are those actions or behaviors which will increase.)
Prediction #5. Absent major outside intervention (Iran, I'm looking at you), U.S. military and reconstruction operations will continue to be, in the main, successful.
(This success will not necessarily translate to better conditions for Iraqi Christians or other minorities, except where under local protection, as in the Kurdish north)
Prediction #6. NATO partners will continue to reduce their footprint in Afghanistan. Gen. Petraeus and his troops (including airmen, sailors, and marines) will bravely struggle on, in the main successfully.
Prediction #7. Some knucklehead wannabee terrorist will manage to get something on a plane, despite current TSA security measures, which results in yet more intrusive security measures being enforced against the traveling public.
Prediction #8. The DoD will begin transitioning from the Clinton-era DADT policies. Ivy League school resumption of ROTC training will occur only sporadically and armed services recruiting stations in Greenwich Village, Key West, and San Francisco will not require rapid deployment of recruiter reinforcements to handle a tsunami of new recruits.
(Notice how I didn't use the word "surge" here. "Surge" is so last decade.)
Prediction #9. CAA will continue to post but not daily nor even necessarily weekly, as the press of official duties continues to dictate otherwise.
Prediction #10. Iran will continue its nuclear weapons development program, remaining just 1-5 years from a successful test, as they have been for at least two decades now.
Time for resolutions.
Time for predictions.
Lessee what's in the bag-o-tricks today......
Resolved: Try (try, try, try, really try) to be a better person. A better husband, a better officer, just better.
(Better doesn't necessarily mean nicer.)
Predictions:
Prediction #1. The economy will improve. Or at least stabilize. It won't be worse than it is now in twelve months time.
The greatest American political invention of them all wasn't really the filibuster or gerrymandering or even a written bill of rights. It was checks and balances among the three co-equal branches of government combined with a bicameral legislature.
So rather than a single economic politico-ideology driving the national economy off of a cliff, and then doing it again, and then doing it again, and then doing it again.... so rather than that, for another year in a row, instead of that there's going to be some economic stability. And from that stability will come recovery.
(Actually, I believe a written bill of rights was truly the greatest of American political inventions, but work with me here.)
Prediction #2. In Hollywood, some other directors than the those who just remade True Grit will try their hand at making westerns. Some will be remakes. Others new. The ones which bow the least in the direction of current fashions in political correctness will do best at the box office.
Prediction #3. The SecState will make a major announcement regarding her political future which will surprise only those who haven't followed her political career to date.
(No, I have no insider knowledge of this; I'm just making a prediction here.)
Prediction #4. North Korea will do something outrageous which kills a bunch of people, most likely South Koreans. And be rewarded for it.
(Item: actions or behavior which are rewarded or subsidized are those actions or behaviors which will increase.)
Prediction #5. Absent major outside intervention (Iran, I'm looking at you), U.S. military and reconstruction operations will continue to be, in the main, successful.
(This success will not necessarily translate to better conditions for Iraqi Christians or other minorities, except where under local protection, as in the Kurdish north)
Prediction #6. NATO partners will continue to reduce their footprint in Afghanistan. Gen. Petraeus and his troops (including airmen, sailors, and marines) will bravely struggle on, in the main successfully.
Prediction #7. Some knucklehead wannabee terrorist will manage to get something on a plane, despite current TSA security measures, which results in yet more intrusive security measures being enforced against the traveling public.
Prediction #8. The DoD will begin transitioning from the Clinton-era DADT policies. Ivy League school resumption of ROTC training will occur only sporadically and armed services recruiting stations in Greenwich Village, Key West, and San Francisco will not require rapid deployment of recruiter reinforcements to handle a tsunami of new recruits.
(Notice how I didn't use the word "surge" here. "Surge" is so last decade.)
Prediction #9. CAA will continue to post but not daily nor even necessarily weekly, as the press of official duties continues to dictate otherwise.
Prediction #10. Iran will continue its nuclear weapons development program, remaining just 1-5 years from a successful test, as they have been for at least two decades now.
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