Dr. Jerry Pournelle at Chaos Manor ("The Original Blog *") takes a long view, but with an eye to the immediate-to-near future.
Money quote(s):
"The Supreme Military Council now rules Egypt."
"We can wish the Egyptians well. Perhaps something good can come from all this. It is not impossible. Turkey emerged from turmoil and defeat and a secular Republic was built by the Young Turks headed by Mustapha Kemal Ataturk. That Republic endured and thrived, although there are signs that it is being transmogrified into an Islamic state, as witness the odd incident of the "peace flotilla" to Gaza."
&
"Egypt has its Army and the tradition of the Mamelukes.
And there are hundreds of thousands of people in Cairo. The foundation of the Egyptian economy is tourism. Food prices are rising. Food futures are up and rising. The first task of the Mamelukes will be to feed those people as they stand down from the public square. They will also need to feed the soldiers. They will also need to pay the soldiers: Bremer neglected to do that in Iraq, with the result that it has cost the US trillions."
