Ping

Just to be clear, CAA is not dead, injured, committed to an asylum, nor otherwise being held incommunicado.

Nor have the Tigers (or Black Dragons) eaten me.

CAA has been the victim of a horrible plot to "upgrade" my Blogger/Blogspot experience.

Oh joy.  My "experience" is now so upgraded that I'm seriously considering giving up on the whole thing entirely.

In other news, there's been lots of goings-on ongoing in CAA's world.  Which is your world, come to think of it.  So you likely have heard all about most of it.

There are many conflicting reports about the events of this year's 9/11 attacks.  Which is what I'm calling them.  Because that's what they were.

CAA has no special knowledge of those events, privileged or otherwise.  CAA's clearances and accesses simply don't run to those areas these days.  So if I opine just a bit, it's not like I'll be betraying any confidences.

So if, between my cranky home computer and this annoying-as-Hell "upgrade, I can manage to sketch out a more topical post, well, don't hold your breath.

Marking 9/11

CAA's observances of the eleventh anniversary of 9/11 began much like that fateful day itself. It was a normal, pleasant, sunny September day in Washington begun with the usual morning routine and ablutions, followed by a fairly typical commute involving sluggish traffic and/or crowded Metrorail cars.

That day, as did today, a brand-spanking-new A-100 class had just commenced the day before at the Foreign Service Institute: the 169th today and the 104th back in 2001. So the not-particularly-cloistered hallways and common spaces, not to mention the over-burdened parking lot and cafeteria, at the Schultz Center were clogged with the shiny, smiling faces of the newly-annointed.

By the end of today's workday, reports from two of our Middle Eastern posts, in Libya and in Egypt, would bring news of angry mobs, damaged or looted buildings, and casualties.

Back on that fateful day, the trouble came much closer to home.

Even at this decade-plus remove, it is still difficult to put the 9/11 attacks into a bloodless, intellectual perspective. It's just too soon, the wounds are perhaps scabbed or scarred over but remain all too fresh.

So we remember our fallen, remember that many of them did not fall but had to jump to their deaths rather than burn alive, and are thankful for the many who survived. We remember the fire fighters and other first-responders, the police, the veterans-turned-private-citizens, and the passengers and crew of Flight 93 and while we mourn their loss we also celebrate their sacrifice and count ourself fortunate that such men and women yet live among us.

We also look at the last eleven years and marvel at the hundreds of thousands of American and allied soldiers, sailors, marines, airmen, and others who rallied to their colors and fought (and still fight) the wars their countries asked them to fight. CAA will take quiet (okay, sometimes not-so-quiet) pride in having once been among their number.

Are there lessons we should have learned from our experiences of the last 11 years? Almost certainly. But today the lesson that's over-shadowed my every interaction has been rage.

CAA isn't done being angry. While that's undoubtedly a huge personal failing on my part and something I should pray upon to Jesus most sincerely, it's not simply that I'm stuck somewhere between denial, grief, and acceptance. There's a bit more there that the subconscious is trying to get the intellect to comprehend.

America's enemies are still trying to hurt, humiliate, and if they can manage it, kill us. That much is clear.

What's also clear is that our enemies have a really hard time managing that anywhere close to our home shores and cities. Our enemies best efforts seem to be possible only in those places where we're trying to make nice with Janus-faced local government whose most impressive accomplishments seem to be their marvelously exact calculation of just how much mayhem they can plausibly get away with perpetrating against us.

CAA reads the news every day and wonders how anyone not blindered by wishful thinking can imagine the war is over yet. That's yet another reason he's so angry today.

re: "Darwinian Tourism Still Thrives In Egypt"

DMartyr at The Jawa Report ("Sand people: get it?") accounted for two American tourists who went missing in Egypt.

Money quote(s):

"Many parts of the world are not a safe place for foreigners. We, living in America, tend to take security for granted. Travel the world, enjoy your life. Just use a little common sense."

Many places in the world are no more dangerous than your home town. The dangers in those places, however, will often take forms different from the hazards you routinely avoid in your everyday life.

Of course, some places are way more dangerous than your home town.

Americans planning overseas travel would do well always and everywhere to take a lot at the Country Specific Information that the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs takes such pains to compile and update.

2/3

re: "Two American Tourists Kidnapped In Egypt"

Ace at Aces of Spades HQ noted the misadventure that can befall tourists in dangerous places.

Money quote(s):

"I hate to cast any aspersions on any victims of barbarity, but please, Americans, do not travel to politically unstable parts of the world." (Emphasis in original text. - CAA.)

Any American who's not a regular, experienced international traveler (and those who are, as well) would do well always and often by visiting, and reading, about their destinations before booking their reservations.

You see, the State Department and its minions abroad take great pains to prepare these exhaustive compilations of Country Specific Information for every country in the world. (And then they make sure to update them at least once a year!)

So do yourself a favor. An informed traveler is less likely to be one of our emergency customers abroad.

"2010 was a record year for tourism in Egypt. This year it's down half. And this incident won't help."

2/3

re: "A Reversal of Fortune"

Richard Hernandez at Belmont Club ("the blogger formerly known as 'Wretchard' ") has the Muslim Brotherhood's number, as they have ours.

Money quote(s):

"Remember when the Muslim Brotherhood was reckoned to be part of the movement for democratic change in Egypt? That was then. This is now."

Remember who reckoned the MB to be democratic?

Good, now don't forget. Maybe next time you'll remember who the idiots are.

"Maybe the State Department can get the Muslim Brotherhood to help the US ambassador out. “Egypt’s justice minister said on Tuesday he had sent back a letter from the U.S. ambassador that asked for an end to a travel ban on Americans being investigated for alleged illegal funding of pro-democracy groups.” America is only the biggest aid donor to Egypt, which is kind of nice for the Muslim Brotherhood because they’re going to have money to spend. You would think that the MB should be going out of its way to do America a favor."

The MB read their Koran, it's sort of their "operating system" and "source code" and take it seriously. It frames their worldview. In that particular "reality tunnel," money from infidels is only their just due; it's tribute or jizya.

So expecting it to buy anything, other than temporary tolerance (or not), is on the foolish side of the ledger.

"(T)hey are probably betting that the administration will keep handing out the money however hard they get poked in the eye. After all, it is still “friends” with Pakistan in spite of what the Land of the Pure has done to its nearest and dearest Western ally. And if you can be friends with Pakistan, how can you even have enemies?"

&

"(T)he Muslim Brotherhood had this figured out even before the Washington Post could write an editorial. They know the iron rule of extortion: the squeaky wheel gets the grease. Be a nice guy and you get zip. Be the Muslim Brotherhood and the other hand and … as applied to Egypt this implies that the Copts get nothing; America gets nothing, but the Muslim Brotherhood gets everything."

2/1

re: "These things happen for a reason"

Lemuel Calhoon at Hillbilly White Trash ("Commenting about politics, religion, firearms, food, Celtic music, beer, science fiction and the Asheville Vortex. Home of the Hillbilly Ecosystem.") is experiencing some existential-level cognitive dissonance. And with good reason.

Money quote(s):

"America went to war with two nations in response to Islamic terrorism and we have killed or captured most of the top leadership of al Qaeda, including bin Laden himself. However our failure to identify the nature of the problem (which is nothing more or less than Islam itself) and our suicidal fealty to the culturally lethal ideologies of multiculturalism and political correctness have rendered us almost defenseless against this kind of home grown jihad and seriously hampered our ability to deal with the problem on an international level.

Right after Sept. 11 president Bush hosted Islamic religious leaders at the White House to prove that the US was not at war with Islam. Then it came out that most of those imams were tied to terrorism in some way. TSA screeners at airports are told not to pay any special attention to people who look Arab/Middle Eastern for fear of being accused of profiling."

Islam's problem seems to be either that it never underwent a reformation (which might have shifted it from its medieval moorings) or that the reformation it has undergone took it in the wrong (from Western perspective) direction.

I understand that Pres. Bush took pains to emphasize that the West, and the U.S. specifically, was not at war with Islam so as to head-off initiating the sort of Huntingtonian "clash of civilizations" that Osama Bin Ladin dreamed of waging. Not playing into what Al-Qaida wanted is a pretty good argument for Bush's policy there, whatever else you may think of the former president.

As for TSA screening guidance.... from a security perspective, you don't want to necessarily exempt non-Arabs/Middle Eastern persons from security screenings since that sort of loophole creates a security vulnerability that just begs to be taken advantage of.

But that doesn't seem to be how things are actually done; TSA gives the appearance of being more afraid of CAIR's press releases than is healthy or helpful. Going out of the way to avoid paying attention to the patterns and indicators of likely terrorists is a losing proposition and indicates a lack of courage of conviction.

That's a recipe of losing the larger war.

"Christian and Jewish clergy must be banned from the 9/11 memorial service at Ground Zero but a building ruined by wreckage from one of the 9/11 planes (making it as much a part of Ground Zero as the WTC site) must be torn down so that a giant Islamic Victory Mosque can be built.

The United States has helped to bring about regime change in Egypt and Libya (actually going to war in Libya's case) to replace governments that were bad but not currently supporting Jihad terrorism with far worse governments that are connected with organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda.

The United States and Western Europe (that part of the world once known as Christendom) has seemingly lost faith in itself. In its value to the world. It is very likely too late for Europe but not for the US. That is if we screw up our courage and face facts and take appropriate action."


8/28

re: "Mosque Makeovers Overseas -- Funded By U.S. Taxpayers"

Amy Alkon at The Advice Goddess ("syndicated advice columnist, journalist, author and blogger ") voiced a reasonable critique.

Money quote(s):

"(F)unding mosques (run by extremists in Egypt, for the most part) shows weakness, it does not "build bridges," as the State Department claims."

Given all the different things we can reasonably aid and assist with funding in a Third World country like Egypt, are mosques really the smartest choices?

7/28

re: "Israel and South Sudan announce full diplomatic ties"

Robert Zeliger at PASSPORT ("A Blog by the Editors of FOREIGN POLICY") explained some of this development's significance.

Money quote(s):

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially recognized the new country a week before the U.N. voted to make it the 193rd state to be admitted to the world body, earlier this month."

A small country carved out of the territory of an aggressive Islamist hegemon. What could they possibly have in common?

"Israel, which has no relations with northern Sudan, has promised South Sudan economic help -- something it is in need of.

The Jewish state sees Africa as important diplomatic territory and has been offering economic aid and lucrative business deals in recent years -- including arms and agriculture -- in an attempt to counter Iran's growing clout on the continent. The effort is partially about votes in the U.N. -- Africa has 54 now. Iran has been trying to extend its outreach to African states like Senegal and Nigeria in an effort to counter its growing isolation in the West."

Israel is getting in on the ground floor with a country needing all sorts of nation-building expertise.

"Israel has another reason for wanting to establish ties with the new country. In recent years it has been flooded with thousands of refugees from Sudan -- people fleeing strife in both Darfur and South Sudan. They sneak into Israel through Egypt and have stirred debate about whether the country should be more or less welcoming. Already, since the announcement of new ties, the country's interior minister, Eli Yishai, has called on Israel to begin negotiations with South Sudan to return the refugees."

This is an angle I hadn't heretofore considered, but it touches on important domestic political and cultural issues that only reinforce what a win-win diplomatic strategy this is for Israeli.

7/28

re: "Obama’s Muslim Brotherhood Favoritism Will Lead to War in the Middle East"

Keith Davies at Big Peace attributes to malice what can adequately be explained by naïveté.

Money quote(s):

"Over the last year we have seen our government sell out Hosni Mubarak, the key leader who has brought relative peace and stability in the region. Instead, we have jumped on board with the “Arab Spring” which has led to Islamists taking power. My colleagues and I are not privy to CIA intelligence, but if we were able to predict such things based on common sense and our expertise in Middle East affairs, why could not our government see? Or maybe they can. It seems our government is infiltrated by the Muslim Brotherhood and, along with political correctness from politicians who choose reelection over common sense, has allowed the Middle East to become a powder keg ready to explode."

Still and all: once is happenstance or accident; twice is coincidence (even if some folks don't believe in "coincidence"); but three times is enemy action.

12/3

re: "Triumphs Of Smart Diplomacy: #28,764"

MikeM. at Confederate Yankee ("Because liberalism is a persistent vegetative state.") noted the failure of a host nation to protect an embassy.

Money quote(s):

"The seizure of the embassy of a foreign nation is normally considered an act of war."

Sure, when a government does it.

On the other hand, when a government fails to protect a diplomatic mission, it fails in its obligations under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. It's less clear to me that this can/should be considered an act of war.

Lots of things can be considered to be causus belli, but if every government went to war every time something that could be considered an act of war happened, then there'd be a lot more wars.

9/9

re: "House Human Rights Committee Considers Christian Genocide in Sudan"

George McGraw at Big Peace gives a clear picture of ethnic cleansing.

Money quote(s):

"The Nuba people of Sudan’s Southern Kardofan region are being systematically exterminated in the midst of a developing genocide described as “the world’s next Rwanda.” "

These are the people from whom the region gets its traditional name of Nubia. Their culture predates that of the arabicized Sudanese muslims who dominate Sudan.

"Sudanese military forces under the command of President Omar Al Bashir are targeting civilians – particularly women and children – with both ground and air assaults in an effort to eradicate the Christian and ethnic Nuba populations. The move also aims to diminish capacity and support for the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which has taken up arms in opposition to the violence."

Nothing surprising in any of that. It's how they roll. The SAF and Pres. Bashir can be relied upon, always, to oppress, massacre, or marginalize any of their fellow citizens who won't pretend they're Arabs.

"On June 5th Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) began the aerial bombardment of civilian targets followed by the house-to-house mass extermination of Christians, Nubans and SPLM by Sudan’s Popular Defense Force (PDF) – described by some as the “Al Qaeda of Sudan.” "

The SPLM (a.k.a. the SPLA or even SPLM/A) now has its own country, South Sudan. However there are plenty of its supporters north of the (mostly undefined) border in Sudan. Pres. Bashir clearly aims to change the facts on the ground to make that no longer the case.

"Egyptian peacekeepers stationed outside of the state capital (Kadugli) allowed government forces to enter the their base and separate Nubans and SPLM supporters from other civilians seeking shelter there. Sudanese forces then murdered them outside of the mission’s gates."

Anybody reading the news out of Cairo these days? Anybody going to be surprised at this behavior. Why wouldn't the Egyptian army allow their Sudanese brethren access to the UN compound and the civilians there?

"(T)he escalation in violence is directly linked to the disputed gubernatorial appointment of Ahmed Haroun, who like Bashir, is wanted for war crimes in Darfur by the International Criminal Court. In a recent open letter to the UN, Bishop Elnail recently declared that, “once again, we are facing the nightmare of genocide of our people in a final attempt to erase our culture and society from the face of the earth.” For his part, Mr. Phillips estimated that one half of the Nuban population has been exterminated by Northern military leaders since the 1980s."

The good bishop has this exactly right. This is genocide aimed at ethnic cleansing of what remains of Sudan. If you don't match Pres. Bashir's template of constitutes one of his true countrymen, then your life and livelihood is forfeit.

"As strafing and high-altitude bombing drive civilians into nearby caves, important agricultural plots have been left untended. Widespread food shortage and infrastructural destruction, coupled with mass internal displacement, are expected to contribute to a humanitarian emergency that Mr. Phillips characterized as “slow motion genocide by design.” "

It's a good plan, if ethnic cleansing is your goal. As things get worse, some will become refugees headed to South Sudan (a state without much in the way of resources themselves) to either die en route or become a burden to their neighbors.

"If nothing is done, violence in Southern Kardofan threatens to destabilize recent political independence in neighboring Southern Sudan, drawing it back into a state of active conflict with the North."

Unfortunately, this place is just so remote and there is so little U.S. interest (since U.S. oil companies pulled out decades ago) there that it's a miracle that the U.S. (and others) were able to get South Sudan pulled out of Sudan to begin with. There are going to be borders, and central governments dominated by ethno-religious politics are going to pursue policies of ethno-religious cleansing. And unless the "international community" is willing to "cowboy up" and do something about it, it's going to happen without much being done about it other than providing aid to the survivors.

Frankly, sometimes all that can be done is to bear witness. Not necessarily in silence, but take note nonetheless. And recall the Kennedy administration's admonition to "don't get mad, get even."

(There are some minor concrete things that should, quietly, be happening behind the scenes. Like making note of who the Egyptian peacekeepers, and their commanders, are, and making sure that none of them ever get a dime of U.S. military aid or training again, to say nothing of U.S. visas.. Blacklisting them from participation in future UN peacekeeping activities would seem too obvious to mention, but probably has to be. Having them court-martialed and hanged would be too much to hope for, I fear.)

re: "Adventures in Smart Diplomacy, #2,783"

MikeM at Confederate Yankee ("Because liberalism is a persistent vegetative state.") reminds us of just how many tentacles the Muslim Brotherhood possesses.

Money quote(s):

"The Muslim Brotherhood is arguably the oldest, most influential and most extreme Muslim organization in the modern world. Founded in 1935 in Egypt, its most modern jihadist incarnation began in 1952 when Sayed Qtub, arguably the modern father of the Jihadist movement, returned to Egypt. He had been studying, of all things, American Literature at the University of Northern Colorado. The behavior of American women he saw in movies and in society in general—remember, we’re talking about the early 1950’s—convinced him that western society and Christianity were depraved and turned him irrevocably toward Jihad. His writings had a major influence on Jihadist thinking, an influence still being powerfully felt.

With branches in at least 70 countries (Hamas is the Palestinian branch), including America, the MB is very influential to Muslims around the world. Fatwas—religious edicts—issued by MB mullahs (priests or pastors) are taken very seriously in the Muslim world. A 2004 Fatwa by MB Shiekh Yousef Al-Qaradhawi, for example, proclaiming the religious duty of Muslims to abduct and kill Americans in Iraq was widely observed and cost many lives.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s motto is: “Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. Qur'an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.” Americans tend to analyze such things through the lens of America’s tradition of tolerance of all faiths and of the separation of church and state. Observant Muslims do not think of themselves as Egyptians or Yemenis—for example--who happen to be Muslim, but as Muslims first and foremost. Their nationality and loyalty to any nation tends to be far down on their list, after being Muslim, family, tribe, clan, and other concerns, if it registers for them at all. When Muslim Brotherhood members speak of jihad and “dying in the way of Allah,” they are not engaging in pandering or politically correct rhetoric but expressing their duty and willingness to die killing anyone they consider the enemy of Islam.

It is, for Americans, a bizarre paradox that American Muslims, people who identify themselves as loyal Americans who happen to practice Islam, people who would not take up the call of Jihad, are different from Jihadist Muslims, from Muslims who support the MB. In fact, these American Muslims are seen as apostates, fit only for death, by their more radical co-religionists. In fact, Muslims not taking the path of Jihad are not truly observing the dictates of their religion, not the other way around."

This may be the best four-paragraph explanation of the Muslim Brotherhood ever written.

If you've go the time and dedication, take a look at this as well.

"Consider that the MB certainly considers all Americans to be infidels, fit only for slavery, conversion to Islam and Sharia, or death. This is not political rhetoric read from a teleprompter, but the life and belief and passion of all observant Muslims who follow MB philosophy. They particularly consider women to be nothing more than chattel, the possessions of men."

Those of you are curious should look into the status of women taken prisoner or captive in war, under koranic observances. Apparently, the misadventure involved in being taking captive suffices to dissolve the captive's matrimonial bonds, thus absolving those who enslave them from committing the serious sin of adultery as they enjoy a bit of rapine thereafter.

How convenient.

"Prominent MB thinkers have already been speaking of completely Islamicizing Egypt, and calling her archeological treasures such as the pyramids and statuary “idols.” This is significant in that Islam brooks no depictions of Muhammed, Allah, or photographs, statues or similar images, considering it to be idolatry. They would gladly do to Egypt’s priceless treasures what the Taliban did to Afghanistan’s priceless and irreplaceable Buddhist statuary: destroy it as contrary to the Koran."

One would think that the pyramids and all the antiquities of Ancient (and not-so-ancient) Egypt would be safe, being such a money-maker and tourist draw for the country. Certainly there are plenty of Egyptians, in and out of government, who understand the economic realities involved in the millions of Egyptians whose livelihoods are dependent upon the successful exploitation of these pre-Islamic treasures.

Unfortunately, there are no guarantees that those who do understand Egypt's economic realities are going to be any match for those who combine a madrassa-style education (i.e., nothing resembling science or reason) with access to modern weaponry and high explosives.

re: "Six Days in June"

Dave in Texas at Ace of Spades HQ remembers a long-ago fight.

Money quote(s):


"(W)hen Israel fought for its survival in the 6-Day War, they faced Arab armies in M-48 Patton tanks. When they say "never again", they really mean it.

In June of 1967, almost a quarter-million Israeli troops, of which only 50,000 were regulars, the rest reservists faced off against a half-million Arab soldiers from Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq. Israel prepared by collecting vital intelligence regarding enemy positions, and battle plans, and by launching a devasting air attack against the air forces of the combatants, which resulted in Israel owning the airspace over the battlefield, a force multiplier for their smaller forces against the Arabs."

Israel, lacking oceans by which it could be separated from its enemies, depends upon a much faster mobilization process than we ever have (at least not since the Minute Men).

"Does Israel have the right to exist?

Regardless of our answers, they think they do."

That kind of settles the question. They are a nation in being, which suffices to constitute any sort of "right" salient to the subject.

"Israel knew they ultimately stood alone against their enemies. And it was up to them to fight back and win, or be annihilated. And by "annihilated", I mean completely Holocausted off the face of the planet.

Surrounded by their enemies, they taught their enemies "don't fuck with us"

I admire this sentiment."

Once upon a time we had a similar sentiment on one of our flags.

re: "Quick Takes, June 16, 2011"

MikeM. at Confederate Yankee ("Because liberalism is a persistent vegetative state.") shares some quick takes.

Money quote(s):

"ITEM: He Did WHAT?! Remember, gentle readers, the war over the Falkland Islands? You remember that Argentina seized the British Islands in 1982 and the Brits, plucky critters that they are, seized them back? Since taking office, one of the foremost elements of Mr. Obama’s foreign policy has been egregiously insulting our allies, and none more stupidly and regularly than the British. Last June, he backed an Argentinian call for “negotiations” over the islands (read: for forcing the British to give them to Argentina). And now, fresh from his latest diplomatic debacle of insulting the Queen with a clumsy toast, he has again backed a similar resolution. Oh yes, Argentina is more and more allying itself with our declared enemies in the region, so it’s a cinch that Mr. Obama would support them. Go here for the story."

&

"ITEM: Louis Renault Award, Smart Diplomacy Division. I was shocked, shocked! when I discovered that Mr. Obama and the State Department were—how should I put it? Naïve? Foolish? Abysmally stupid?—in their approach to Egypt and their assumption that everything would be just fine, because after all, the Muslim Brotherhood are really just a bunch of moderates who long for democracy. Right. Not so much. Go here to the Washington Post, which speaks of the current and ongoing battle for the future of Egyptian culture. Will Egypt continue to be a reasonably secular democracy or an Islamic theocracy with all that implies? “There is going to be a battle between two visions for Egypt,” the article quotes. Indeed. And the Islamists are heavy favorites as they will have no hesitation in murdering anyone who disagrees with them. Smart diplomacy indeed."

re: "For neocons: Bolton’s democracy primer on Egypt"

Neo-Neocon ("surely leaving the fold and becoming that dread thing") excerpts from Amb. Bolton's advice and comments.

Money quote(s):

"Egypt is probably a walk in the park compared to Libya if the rebels manage to depose Qaddafi. Paradoxically, if the Iranian opposition were somehow successful in getting rid of the mullahs, Iran might even have the best chance of becoming the closest thing to a liberal democracy in a Muslim country in the region (including the nascent and tenuous democracy in Iraq), simply because its people have had such a long and gut-wrenching experience of enduring the opposite after a revolution that briefly promised otherwise."

http://neoneocon.com/2011/02/25/for-neocons-boltons-democracy-primer-on-egypt/

re: "SPLAT!!!"

LC Subotai Bahadur, Lord Pao An at The Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler ("HQ of the Rottweiler Empire. An Affiliate of the VRWC.") assembles some information and does a little forecasting.

Money quote(s):

"The Dark Times are no longer a matter of if; but rather of when, how long, and how bad. The Great Depression is now one of the best-case scenarios. It IS going to get hungry out there. “Out there” meaning outside our own homes."

Not to get all "survivalist-compound" on you, but keep reading.

"We have been watching the mayhem in Tunisia, Egypt, and around the Third World with more than a little emphasis on the Ummah, the Muslim world. There are riots in the streets, and general unrest. Most of it caused in large part by the rise in the price of food."

As food prices rise, those on the margins get squeezed past the breaking point; leading one "illegal" Tunisian food vendor to self-immolation.

"Our poor, those officially designated by the government, have as high a per capita income as much of the middle class in the rest of the world, and have more and better material goods and in many cases housing than the middle class of the rest of the world.

One of the points where we come out ahead, even our poor, is in the percentage of income and effort that has to be devoted to getting enough food to eat. In this country, we average 10-15% of our income having to be spent on food. For most of the rest of the world; it is 40-60%. There is also a qualitative difference."

"In our country, the primary dietary problem of the poor is acute obesity. In the Third World, there is not a productive agricultural sector and the governments spend a large proportion of their budgets importing food from overseas and selling it to the people at subsidized prices that do not reflect the actual cost at all. Our government interventions into agriculture are designed to keep prices high enough to continue to encourage continued high volume production by our agricultural sector. We produce enough food to feed our own, fatten our poor, and usually export enough to feed much of the world. And we do it with less damage to the environment than pretty much all the rest of the world.

Now let us consider those rough figures about the cost of food in the family budget. If food prices rise 10% in this country, that means that the total cost of food out of the family budget goes to 16 ½%. Not pleasant, but bearable. We have enough leeway in income to adjust things to make it work. Cutting back on Starbucks and a few other optional purchases more than covers it without touching other necessities. In the Third World, a 10% price increase can mean the food portion of the budget goes to 2/3 of their income; and there is not much other leeway."

"The supply of food is not fixed. It is shrinking.

Aside from the deliberate policy of currency inflation by all the major economic powers [which raises all world commodity prices], there is an actual shortfall of food grains. There are 5 major producers/exporters of food grains that cover the shortfalls in food production around the world.

Russia/Ukraine, Canada, Australia, Argentina, and the United States. Russia/Ukraine has embargoed food exports due to crop failures [drought and fires] so they can hope to feed their own people. Canada’s wheat crop is down 12% below normal due to flooding. Australia has floods and storms in the east and crop destroying droughts in the west. Argentina does not have that great a surplus. And the United States is using 1/3 of its grain crop to make energy inefficient moonshine to burn instead of using it for food.

That is why the governments of Third World countries that can afford it are buying up food grains as fast as they can and are paying a premium for it. And this is not because of any sense of responsibility for those people. It is to avoid being literally torn to pieces by a mob. There is no longer the slack to maintain the subsidies, so food prices are rising. Hungry people who are subjects, and not citizens with alternate means of getting at the government,* will turn to violence fairly immediately."

* I.e., fair and democratic elections, independent judiciaries, rule of law not men, &tc.

"Hunger and inflation are major factors in what is happening in Egypt, both as triggers, and in limiting the riots [people have to stop and find food for their families, as the government food distribution system broke down right smartly]. There is no solution to what is happening there that will come from either a change of government, or some form of the old Nassarite system holding on. Population pressure, and the economic chaos caused by worldwide inflation and a shortage of food grains mean that no matter if things settle down under the Supreme Military Council, eventually it will fall apart. There is not going to be a Constitutional Convention at that point. At one or another interation, the Muslim Brotherhood or a like group is going to end up in charge."

The writer does, in his post, offer some constructive suggestions (not quoted here) as to how the global food shortage may be alleviated by unilateral action of the U.S.

"1/3 of the winter wheat crop in China has been lost to drought. More, maybe all, may be lost.
Think about that for a moment, because there are some pretty dire consequences.

China has made food self-sufficiency a key policy goal since 1949, except for politically caused famines. It has succeeded pretty well up till now. China avoids massive grain imports most years. It just failed."

Bear in mind also that rising incomes in China have led to a more Western type diet among the growing middle class. After all, if you can afford it, why eat like your peasant forebears if you don't have to.

As any honest political scientist (or intelligence analyst) will tell you, it's not downtrodden peasants who make successful revolutions; it's dissatisfied middle classes with rising (and frustrated) expectations.

"China is NOT going to suffer a major famine now if the Chinese government can help it, because over a billion hungry Chinese are going to remember how certain dynasties ended if they do. And the Chinese government can afford to buy the food from overseas. China has a huge trade surplus with us. They have dollars coming out the south end of the northbound dragon. They will bid whatever it takes to secure food supplies. The amounts of both money and grain will be horrendous. And the world price will go up. And up. And up. And the supply of grain available for purchase by the rest of the world is going to go down. And down. And down. It is going to get damned hungry out there in the world. And hungry people do not have much patience."

"We will not be exempt. Food prices will rise. We will be competing with foreign bidders for our crop, which is as it should be. That will be good for our farmers. And we do produce enough for ourselves, if we are allowed to. The only way to limit the food price increases would be to do like Russia, and embargo food exports. That will put Malthus on steroids and increase the bad results elsewhere."

&

"Another possible consequence. China will be using dollars to buy a huge amount of food. They also buy the worthless script that we call Treasury Securities. What if they use the money they buy Treasuries with to buy food; or if they start selling our Treasuries to pay for food. The reduced demand for Treasuries means that government interest costs skyrocket and the shell game is over." (Emphasis in original.)

This last possibility has had me concerned since the Egyptian protests started and I became aware of the food shortage problem. I've since read (can't remember where) that China has already begun selling T-bills and its Japan that's picking up the slack.

I can't confirm it, I definitely read it online (so it must be true) rather than anywhere governmental, but it is worrisome.

re: "Apocalyptic Mental Midgetry...."

Deebow at Blackfive ("the paratrooper of love") is underimpressed with the current foreign policy leadership.

Money quote(s):

"The apocalyptic lack of actual experience in the area of foreign affairs, foreign policy, and knowledge of what actually works is becoming stunningly clear to those Americans who are willing to do the barest amount of news-watching. I wonder where we can find more of these people to hire?

And with men like Leon Panetta (whose foresight on intelligence matters is limited to his playing "Risk" in college, and evidently, watching the news), and DNI James Clapper (who evidently didn't see the word "muslim" in the title "Muslim Brotherhood"), and SOS Hillary Pantsuits (well, ummm... Never Mind..) advising the community organizer in chief on how best to not show weakness, send a consistent message and try not to alienate the .02 percent of the population that attended UC Berkeley who would vote for him 2012; we end up with a situation that, unfortunately, our enemies are watching very closely, because they get a vote in what happens as well."

Ouch. More than a little bit of partisan anger is clouding the criticism here, which should be examined cooly and with some professional detachment, thank-you-very-much.

"This is not leadership. Vacilation is not a leadership trait. Good leaders make consistent decisions from consistent thinking with intelligence guided by experience and training. This President seems to be flipping a coin or taking a poll in the Situation Room by a show of hands.

I know what real leadership looks like, the writers and viewers of this blog know what leadership looks like, and this ain't it. Fire Panetta now. Fire Clapper now. Fire Clinton now."

One of the things that's so frustrating sometimes is knowing just how little the U.S. can actually do, sometimes, to influence events in faraway places. For instance, when unorganized protesters occupy a major public square for a week or more, who has their leader (hint: there isn't one) in their Rolodex file? Lack of understanding of just how limited our options sometimes are makes it easy to direct the anger this frustration produces on simplistic targets.

re: "Mubarak Resigns"

Dr. Jerry Pournelle at Chaos Manor ("The Original Blog *") takes a long view, but with an eye to the immediate-to-near future.

Money quote(s):

"The Supreme Military Council now rules Egypt."

"We can wish the Egyptians well. Perhaps something good can come from all this. It is not impossible. Turkey emerged from turmoil and defeat and a secular Republic was built by the Young Turks headed by Mustapha Kemal Ataturk. That Republic endured and thrived, although there are signs that it is being transmogrified into an Islamic state, as witness the odd incident of the "peace flotilla" to Gaza."

&

"Egypt has its Army and the tradition of the Mamelukes.

And there are hundreds of thousands of people in Cairo. The foundation of the Egyptian economy is tourism. Food prices are rising. Food futures are up and rising. The first task of the Mamelukes will be to feed those people as they stand down from the public square. They will also need to feed the soldiers. They will also need to pay the soldiers: Bremer neglected to do that in Iraq, with the result that it has cost the US trillions."

re: "Mubarak was wrong, and so were we"

Peter Feaver at Shadow Government ("Notes From The Loyal Opposition") dissects in the aftermath.

Money quote(s):

"(A)lmost everyone, including bloggers like me, managed to get it wrong:

The Intelligence community. The beleaguered IC was already reeling from White House criticism about failing to predict events unfolding in Tunisia and Egypt. (This criticism is a bit unfair since I bet there were some warnings -- given the volume of intelligence products and the way they are written, virtually everything has been predicted as "possible." Moreover, it is clear that those with vastly better intelligence and sources on Egypt than anything the IC ever could hope to amass, the Mubarak regime itself, were also surprised by the flow of events.) Then came the gaffe by Director of National Intelligence Clapper about the "largely secular" Muslim Brotherhood, a statement his staff was obliged to walk back later in the day. And the topper was CIA Director Panetta's admission that his forward-leaning prediction yesterday about Mubarak's departure was based not on intelligence analysis but on television reports. This is an almost textbook case of the CNN effect."

re: "Glad the adults are in charge- National Security FAIL!"

Uncle Jimbo at Blackfive ("the paratrooper of love") is none too pleased and doesn't mince words about it.

Money quote(s):

"So far as regards the Egyptian revolution, our President has voted present, our Vice President denied that a dictator of 30 years was a dictator of 30 years, our Secretary of State stated two completely contradictory positions in the course of 4 days, our Director of National Intelligence wasn't even joking when he called the MUSLIM Brotherhood a secular group that has eschewed violence, and now the Director of the CIA testifies to Congress (incorrectly) based on the information his agency gleaned by watching f***ing CNN!

Boy I'm tickled pink that we have this impressive group of professionals to reestablish America's position in the world. The most significant event in the Middle East in decades and we have a clown car full of pint-sized personalities running around saying things so dumb that Saturday Night Live has fired its writers and now will just run clips from C-Span. What a great idea to hire a completely unexperienced, perpetual grad student as President & Commander in Chief. His amazing blend of bong hit diplomacy & a failed cult of personality have made him almost transparent on the international stage."

&

"(N)ow Europe and the Anglosphere seem to be waking up and smelling the tea and croissants as well. Australia, England, Canada, Germany & France have all noted the bleedingly, freaking obvious, that multi-culturalism creates multiple cultures and that some of those cultures are reprehensibly barbaric.

A Bush admin aide caught a lot of crap about saying that they created their own reality. What he was talking about was getting inside our enemies decision loop and not allowing them to dictate the situation. If you move swiftly enough you can create a reality your enemies couldn't plan for. That requires the courage of your convictions (or convictions period) and the stones to act. It is all well and good to call inaction pragmatism, or Realpolitik and there are times when caution is obviously the proper course."