Dr. Jerry Pournelle at Chaos Manor ("The Original Blog *") examines an absurdity of our time.
Money quote(s):
"It is important to understand that this is true. Famine threatens the Arab world as food prices rise. The Chinese are now wealthy enough to outbid most of the world for wheat, which is literally the staff of life for much of the Near East; and the Chinese people are getting used to having a variety of foods. You will note there are no riots in China. The Party system is pretty effective there, and the fires of freedom burn strongest among persecuted minorities who are pretty well doomed. I don't claim to be an expert on the Chinese Party System of government, but it appears to have become quite effective, even in this era of near-universal communications. Arthur Koestler told us that a sufficient condition for the end of totalitarian government was the free exchange of ideas, and he may well have been right: there are few totalitarian systems now. That does not mean the end of tyranny; it does mean the end of systems that insist you believe in what they want you to believe.
Even in the 1980's there were few true Communists in the USSR, even though everyone had to pretend to believe in it. It was the official doctrine, and Suslov, "the last Communist", had been able to use the official doctrine to bring about regime change. The USSR could not withstand the pressures put on the system, and the free exchange of ideas within the system undermined the basis of legitimacy of the regime. There is no such pretense of the truth of Communism in China.
The question in North Africa and the Middle East is just what is the basis of legitimacy for government? It is different in different places.
But the threat of famine menaces them all. Some are rich enough to outbid China for food. Some will be able to substitute corn -- maize, mealies, polenta -- provided that is available; but the more corn we turn into alcohol to burn as fuel the higher its price will go. I do not see that this is well understood by the policy wonks in Washington." (Bold type added for emphasis. - CAA.)
Let me say what Dr. Pournelle leaves unsaid.
As Americans subsidize the use of ethanol, this artificially raises the price of corn, which is used to make ethanol. As the price of corn rises, more of our agricultural capacity is used, or diverted, to grow corn and so less of our agriculturally productive land is used to produce other foodstuffs.
As the burning of food causes food prices to rise internationally (as they're already doing), China has enough of our monetary green stuff to continue to buy whatever they need on the world market. This is going to price corn and other grains out of the reach of poorer countries leading, in the medium term, to food riots, improverishment, revolutions, famine, and death.
