Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Security Decisions, part the first
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
re: "Foreign Service Conversion - All About The Benjamins"
By "big" I mean about 50 percent, assuming the conversion candidate is a GS-13 pay grade employee who has been around ten or more years.
Even that temporary Chief of Mission job would lose its appeal if I had to take such a severe financial haircut to convert. " (Bold typeface added for emphasis. - CAA.)
With the exception of our Foreign Service Specialist colleagues, State Department's Civil Service cadre are probably the best-prepared, most-likely-to-be-successful group of candidates for conversion into the Foreign Service.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
re: "A Kind Word For Fortress Embassies, From A Surprising Source"
Thursday, May 31, 2012
re: "That's An Excellent Point, LTC Peters"
Quoting him from memory, he said this:
“When I went to Command and General Staff College, I would have flunked out if I proposed to put 100,000 troops at the end of a single supply line that ran through a thousand miles of hostile territory.”"
9/24
Monday, April 16, 2012
re: "Costs"
snowshooze said:
"Are you guys really thinking there is any sanity in that?"
My response:
"Building an embassy complex to securely house not only our diplomatic mission but the management of a national reconstruction effort in a combat zone where they take indirect fire every day (including during construction) is going to cost a lot.
A lot.
And when I say “house,” I mean not only their working spaces (and warehouses, workshops, &tc. to support that work) but actual living quarters BECAUSE NONE OF IT MAY BE SAFELY PLACED OUTSIDE OF YOUR SECURITY PERIMETER.
For some perspective, take a look at The Skeptical Bureaucrat’s latest post: http://skepticalbureaucrat.blogspot.com/2012/02/and-another-thing-about-that-baghdad.html
TSB and I go way back. He knows whereof he speaks and is a security professional second to none."
2/11
Monday, March 26, 2012
re: "Working On That Baghdad Footprint"
TSB at The Skeptical Bureaucrat ("From deep inside the foundations of our Republic's capital city") examined remarks related to AmEmb Baghdad by DepSec Nides.
Money quote(s):
"Downsizing the U.S. Mission in Baghdad isn't really about rationing chicken wings in the embassy's dining hall after all, despite yesterday's New York Times story.
Instead, it's all about the reducing the footprint, according to remarks by Thomas Nides, Deputy Secretary for Management and Resources, at a press teleconference today. He said "footprint" seven times."
The chicken wing (and arugula) story was never really more than just another big-media club with which to pummel Americans serving their country in a warzone, uniformed or not.
"(I)f we replace enough third-country security contractors with Iraqis, buy our groceries in the local market, and always, always, always re-think our engagement (Deputy Secretary Nides also said "engagement" seven times) we will eventually fit into a more nearly normal shoe."
Thinking is good. Right-sizing an embassy is a useful activity, particular when it's a out- (notice I don't say "over-") sized as our diplomatic/reconstruction/development/democratication establishment in Iraq.
That being said, placing too much of our embassy security in the hands of essentially un-vettable Iraqis, to say nothing of surrendering our food security, is a recipe for disaster.
"(M)ost of this footprint reduction will come about by hiring fewer foreign (i.e., non-Iraqi) security contractors and replacing them with local hires. That will help in at least two ways. First, it will eliminate a leading source of aggravation for the Iraqis. Second, the mission will not have to house and logistically support so many contractors, since our local hires will go home after their shifts are over, just like a normal local guard force does at a normal mission."
2/8
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
re: "The British Ambassador To Tehran Experiences a 1979 Flashback"
TSB at The Skeptical Bureaucrat ("Giving my fellow Americans the view from my cubicle") provides some professional insight into Amb. Chilcott's remarks.
Money quote(s):
"(T)he embassy staff assumed they would have sufficient warning of a 'serious' mob attack, as opposed to a 'normal' rock-and-bottle throwing demonstration, and that they could send the non-essential staff and dependents home where they would be safely out of the way. Stop me if you've heard this one before."
This is, IIRC, known to students of behavioral conditioning as "operant conditioning." Career intelligence officers know if for something somewhat different, but the goal is similar: condition your target to expect certain situations and conditions to play out a certain way. It's a form of intelligence deception, and the Iranians are good at it.
"Going to the windows is a very bad practice. I hope British embassies have technical means for seeing what's happening outside without needing to expose staff to bullets and flying glass."
U.S. foreign service staff know better than to run to windows when they hear scary noises outside; not to say someone won't do it anyway, but they've been trained not to do so.
Historically, the majority of casualties in an embassy attack have come from flying glass, particularly when blast effects shatter a window. However the majority of fatalities have come from catastrophic structural collapse.
"I am guessing that the residential compound was less well protected against mob attack than was the embassy office building. Bottom line: the non-essential staff and dependents were "rounded up" - i.e., captured and held hostage - unlike the staff who were locked down in the embassy. That's enough to make a reasonable man ask whether foreign missions in unstable places shouldn't protect their residential compounds to the exact same degree they do their office buildings."
Clearly, they've read our playbook and know that Western embassies put the emphasis of their security measures at their working facilities rather than their residences. And have adjusted their offensive strategies against them accordingly. We can expect to see this happen again.
12/5
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
re: "Supreme Court Denies Stay for Mexican Convict In Texas"
Money quote(s):
"The U.S. Supreme Court tonight denied a stay of execution for that Mexican citizen who had been sitting on death row in Texas for 16 years. The court's vote was 5-4 (the usual suspects) and the majority opinion is full of strong statements"
SCOTUS, like consular officers, deals with the laws as they're written, not as they'd like them to be written. Except, of course, when they don't. But consular officers have considerably less, er, interpretive discretion.
"Nothing in the record shows that Leal ever asked for consular access, or even told the police that he was a Mexican citizen (he had lived in the U.S. - illegally - since he was two years old and represented himself as a U.S. citizen). And in any case, he made his incriminating admissions to the police before they arrested him, and therefore before they had any obligation to inform him of his right to consular assistance.
Even if Leal had had the benefit of Mexican consular access before his trial, that would not have changed the fact that he had incriminated himself, nor change any of the other evidence against him. The lack of consular access, then, was not relevant to his conviction and death sentence." (Emphasis in original text. - CAA.)
The facts as cited above make me wonder how/why this case ever made it to the SCOTUS. Who/what was pushing it upwards through the court system and to what end?
"The matter of reciprocity or Mexican retaliation against U.S. citizens is a real concern, but it is much less important than the interest Texas has in carrying out its state laws and punishing murder. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled two years ago that when adherence to a treaty such as the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations is contrary to a state statute, the President cannot override the statute unilaterally, but legislation is required. And as the Supreme Court noted tonight, Congress has not provided that legislation. The Vienna Convention, therefore, has no bearing on the case of Humberto Leal, and Texas was completely free to execute him."
Federalism rears its ugly head. Again. Federal laws don't trump state laws unless Congress specifically authorizes them to do so. So Congress has such power, but must definitely and discretely exercise it in each instance of legislation.
Good to know.
As for reciprocity, the suggestion of official Mexican retaliation against U.S. citizens is a real concern, but pre-supposes that the Mexican government actually does, or will continue to in the future, have some control over events and activities within its borders.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
re: "The Media Turns On Obama, And My Head Is Spinning"
"I've been following Consul-at-Arms and cheering as he defends the Constitutional powers of Congress against the administration's interpretation dismissal of the War Powers Act."
I'd quibble about my defending Congress, exactly. I feel like I've been as critical of Congress (for not defending its Constitutional perogatives) as I've been of the executive branch for continuing to push the envelope of its own Constitutional perogatives.
Money quote(s):
"President Obama started the Libyan action with a March 21 letter to Congress that cited the requirements of the War Powers Act ("I am providing this report as part of my efforts to keep the Congress fully informed, consistent with the War Powers Resolution. I appreciate the support of the Congress in this action") but, when the May 20 deadline for withdrawal approached, he changed his mind about those requirements.This morning, as I caught up on my reading, I saw that both the New York Times and the Washington Post have attacked the administration's position that the War Powers Act no longer applies to its military action in Libya. The Mainstream Media in a united front with CAA? I must be dreaming." (Emphasis in original text. - CAA.)
He had to take a lie down until the dizziness passed.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
re: "Peshawar: Bomb Attack On Consulate Car With No Serious Injuries"
TSB at The Skeptical Bureaucrat ("Giving my fellow Americans the view from my cubicle") has some good news about a bad thing.
Money quote(s):
"State Department employees in Pakistan have another reason to thank the U.S. taxpayer for the enormous investment he has made in heavily armored vehicles for our missions abroad."
We do spend a lot of money on security for our diplomatic and consular missions abroad. We make them harder targets for the bad guys. This helps keep our people alive.
It just doesn't do to make it easy to kill our people. It's good not only make that difficult to accomplish, but to discourage it whenever possible.
"(T)he bomb was about 50 kilos (100 pounds), which is more than large enough to destroy an unhardened vehicle. Happily, our well-protected vehicle sustained only minor damage, and the two employees riding in it were only slightly injured."
Saturday, May 14, 2011
re: "UN's Compound In Mazar-i-Sharif Was Not Well Protected "
TSB at The Skeptical Bureaucrat ("Giving my fellow Americans the view from my cubicle") gives a professional evaluation of the site security at the scene of this massacre.
Money quote(s)
"(T)he UN Mission relied on the presence of local police and their own (third country national) armed guards to deter mobs. They evidently did not put up the kinds of physical barriers - high perimeter walls and gates, entry control facilities, protected guard booths and police fighting position, etc., - that would have delayed and channeled the mob, and made it more feasible for the armed presence to prevent anyone from entering.
Without that element of physical delay, guards and police can't be fully effective."
"Inside the UN compound, the headquarters building likewise lacked physical security relevant to a mob attack."
"While most people will assume that any wall, door, or window that was built to resist bomb blast will also resist small arms fire and forced entry, that is not at all the case. In order to protect people against a prolonged mob attack that uses small arms and improvised hand tools ("hammers or whatever they could find") you need products that were specifically designed for that purpose, like the ones that U.S. embassies use.
FYI, for a detailed description of how those embassy products are tested, and I do mean detailed, see this article in an old issue of a construction trade journal."
&
"(T)he international community might want to take a lesson from our Fortress Embassies"
This last might be more difficult than you'd think, since it would require a mental shift from the "we're the UN, everyone loves us" to "some of our ungrateful public may try to kill us" mindset.
Also, there's a reason for all those security features we saddle ourselves with, they're really not there just to employ hardware manufacturers in favored congressional districts.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
re: "A Fitting Inspiration"
TSB at The Skeptical Bureaucrat ("Giving my fellow Americans the view from my cubicle") found a sign for hope.
Money quote(s):
"Omar Mukhtar, the political-religious figure who led native resistance to Italian colonization of Libya from 1912 to 1931. Anthony Quinn played him in the movie.
A national hero. That's a good sign."
Sunday, March 13, 2011
re: "Gaffes and Guns (Or, What To Do About Libya?)"
TSB at The Skeptical Bureaucrat ("Giving my fellow Americans the view from my cubicle") notes a Washington "glamour don't."
Money quote(s):
"our two most important intelligence officials committed an official gaffe - meaning, they blurted out the truth - while testifying before a Senate committee"
Politicians and the media (but I repeat myself) hate being told something that's so if it contradicts what they wish were so. They didn't tell the committee what they wanted to have happen, they told the committee the conclusion that the facts as they were known, and analysis thereupon, led them to reach.
"Naturally, this led to calls for Clapper to resign. But it might, more productively, have led people to wonder how we can change the dynamics in Libya so as to favor the Libyan rebels."
_____
Update (2/24/2011): Clearly TSB was onto something here, as the U.S. and several allies are now changing the dynamics.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Wikileaks-related posts
Monday, May 31, 2010
Memorial Day
And the fallen would have wanted it that way, except for the traffic jams at least.
To our friends, our brothers and sisters in arms, our forefathers; we remember, we honor your sacrifice with our continued service, and we will not forget.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
re: "FBI: Ciudad Juarez Attackers Might Have Been "Confused" "
Money quote(s):
"The FBI speculates the attackers might have been looking for two other white vehicles that were leaving another kid's party in Juarez that same Saturday afternoon. And, therefore, our employees weren't targeted due to their employment and this wasn't an attack on U.S. government interests.
That's an awfully big stretch of speculation that reaches a comforting conclusion."
"(W)hy wouldn't the narcos be willing to strike directly at U.S. interest targets, especially soft ones? Aren't the narcos facing an "existential threat" from the U.S.-supported Mexican federal government's narcotics control campaign, as is stated on page 14 of the State Department's 2010 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report that was released to Congress two weeks ago?"
"The Mexican drug cartels are fighting for their survival at this point."
&
"What would they have to lose?"
Saturday, March 27, 2010
re: "Abdulmutallab (TWA "Christmas Bomber") Had a Visa Denial Reversed"
Money quote(s):
"The bottom line is that the 18 year-old Abdulmutallab committed a non-material error on his first visa application, which was forgiven based upon his lack of willful misrepresentation and his strong ties to Nigeria, i.e., his Daddy's $$$$$$$. This all happened before he was radicalized and became a security threat."
Be sure to read the commentary; it's right on point.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
re: "Obama's Aunt Zeituni is Back in Boston"
Money quote(s):
"Ms. Zeituni Onyango, the Kenyan Aunt of the President of the United States (KAOPOTUS) and our nation's foremost immigration scofflaw, is back in Boston and living in public housing again while preparing for her next deportation hearing"
&
"(H)er next hearing is scheduled for April Fools Day. If an immigration judge rewards her decade of law-breaking with a grant of asylum, I don't know who will be the bigger fools: the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, or the millions of immigrants who went to the trouble of complying with U.S. laws over the past ten years."
Monday, May 4, 2009
re: "Green Cards for the GITMO Gang?"
Money quote(s):
"Exactly what legal status will these ex-detainees have if they are admitted? Can they qualify for Lawful Permanent Residence? If not, then what? "
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
re: "Street Crime, or Chinese Retaliation?"
Money quote(s):
"(T)here may have been a foreign angle to the unsolved murder of William Bennett, a retired U.S. Army officer and former CIA contractor, and the near-fatal beating of his wife, in suburban Virginia two weeks ago (Spooky murder in Loudon County, VA connected to 1999 Chinese embassy bombing?)."
"I normally scoff when people advance convoluted assassination theories to explain what could more easily be explained by ordinary street crime, but in this case I find an assassination plausible."
"Mr. Bennett and his wife were attacked while they were walking or jogging along a road in Lansdowne at 5:30 AM, which is a time and place when I wouldn't expect to come across meth-heads or crack addicts. For another thing, the only witness to any part of the incident said the attackers left in a white van, a type of vehicle that I also don't associate with gang-bangers out cruising.
Furthermore, Bennett was a former Army Special Forces officer. Retired old geezer or not, he certainly would have put up a hell of a fight when he and his wife were attacked by - as is reported - three men armed with blunt weapons."
He then asks the essential question:
"Would the Chinese actually track down and murder Bennett in retaliation for his accidental targeting of their Belgrade embassy? It seems so, well, Cold War-ish."
Answer: I just don't know. - CAA (FSO and former "Cold Warrior")