re: "Chinese Dragons and Russian Bears"

"Sam Huntington" at Always On Watch ("Semper Vigilans") reviewed strategic issues involving our near-peer competitors.

Money quote(s):

"(A) far more dangerous situation is developing in Asia. No surprise, Americans are not hearing about any of this from the state-run media. Here are a few examples:

· China is claiming island territory within fifty miles of the Philippines.

· Chinese frigates regularly intruded Philippine territorial waters.

· Chinese ships fired upon Philippine fishing boats.

· Chinese naval vessels rammed Vietnamese fishing boats (See Note 1)

· Chinese accost Indian naval vessels operating off the coast of Vietnam, demanding to know why they are operating in Chinese waters.

· Chinese military aircraft intrude into Taiwanese air space.

· China intruded Japanese mainland territorial waters on 14 occasions.

· China intruded Okinawa territorial waters on 10 occasions.

· China created six major incidents with the US Navy at sea.

· Raise your hand if you aren’t aware that North Korea is China’s redheaded stepchild.

Note 1: Vietnam possesses one of the world’s largest armies: (China: 4.5 million, Vietnam: 5.9 million)."

You know the one about amateurs studying tactics and professionals studying logistics?

Well, in terms of international relations, geopolitics, and grand strategy, the professionals are studying China.

"Danger of a regional conflict is real. The consequence to China’s arrogance has been a dramatic increase in military spending among Southeast Asian countries. Australia, Japan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan have all dedicated billions of dollars on new or upgraded military hardware. The United States is upgrading naval facilities in Guam —so much so that Representative Hank Johnson(D-GA) worries the island may capsize. Nevertheless, all of these countries recognize the wisdom of pooling their resources to keep China in check; Japan has taken the lead in establishing mutual defense cooperatives with Australia, South Korea, India, and the United States. Singapore has offered to provide bases for the US Navy."

CAA no longer worries that Guam will become overburdened, over-balanced, and capsize, having received assurances that Guam possesses a sufficiently sturdy keel and gyroscopic stabilizer.

"Owing to the fact that we don’t know what motivates Chinese behavior, the Australian General Staff worries that a mistake could lead to disastrous consequences —particularly when it is likely that China will attempt to use its military to enforce a Chinese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

The problem is that while demanding that other nations treat Chinese EEZs as its sovereign territory, China routinely refuses to acknowledge the EEZs of other nations. From the standpoint of international law, EEZs are not sovereign territory. We can therefore see how China might regard the US Navy’s mission to safeguard open sea-lanes as an intolerable trespass —a situation that could lead to deadly confrontation."

It's the old "what's-mine-is-mine-what's-yours-is-negotiable" attitude turned somewhat sideways: China will use existing international norms and fora to its own advantage and ignore those which infringe upon its own interests. That's what one does when one is the center of the Earth, after all.

"Some politicians argue that given China’s dependence on global trade, a deadly confrontation is unlikely. They may have forgotten that economic ties did not hinder German aggression at the beginning of the 20^th Century —a costly mistake for France. ....but here is where we find the real and present danger. Defense cuts may encourage China to challenge allied nations within the region of Southeast Asia —they are that arrogant."

Nor did close economic ties deflect World War I; for that matter, the United States' close economic ties with Saudi Arabia deter the 9/11 attacks.

(Marx notwithstanding, man is not solely, nor even primarily, an economic animal.)

"From Russia’s perspective, there couldn’t be a better time to threaten the United States and NATO with pre-emptive strikes unless we agree to cancel the so-called Missile Defense Shield, designed as a safeguard from Iranian ICBMs."

This seems a little over-the-top; threatening pre-emptive strikes is way more sabre-rattling than is necessary. Russia has far more effective economic and political levers to pull than jacking things up on the defcon meter.

"If one understands international relations, Russia’s timing couldn’t be better. We should anticipate this sort of behavior by an adversary whenever they perceive American leadership as weak, incompetent, ineffective, or confused."

Harsh words, but hardly unwarranted.

The "reset" button must have been like those ones installed near crosswalks: not really wired to anything but they give pedestrians something to do with their hands while waiting for the lights to change.

"This situation should once again remind us that American politicians and diplomats seldom learn important lessons of history. America cannot afford another war right now. Neither can we afford the perception of weakness, incompetence, or abject stupidity. We continue to live in a dangerous world"

Diplomats actually aren't slouches when it comes to learning their history lessons; however if you expand your definition of "diplomat" beyond those actually trained and experienced in it to those who practice it on our behalf at the highest levels....

"Rather than facing a deadly and costly regional conflict in Southeast Asia, it would be far less expensive to deter Chinese aggression vis-à-vis a strong military presence along the Pacific Rim. As for the Russian Bear, they understand but one thing: force or its promise."

5/4

re: "Afghanistan and Honor"

GRIM at Blackfive ("the paratrooper of love") asked the hardest questions about Afghanistan.

Money quote(s):

"I asked a question at the end of the last post. The consensus from you ladies and gentlemen is... let it go. We've spent almost three thousand American, UK and NATO soldiers' lives there. That's a hard thing to walk away from.

Not that you're wrong."

In business, the concept is "sunken costs."

(It means not throwing good money after bad.)

But it doesn't mean it won't leave a bad taste in your mouth for some time afterwards

"The logistics have never worked, except for illegal goods whose value is exaggerated by artificial scarcity. Moving them into legitimate markets was never an option. Take a look at the railroad situation. They have no seaports, so rail roads are the next best thing. Of their neighboring countries, China is on a different track gauge; Pakistan and nearby India are on another; Iran is on a third; only the former Soviet states share their gauge. But that means a vast distance to the nearest seaport, and connection to global trade; or else, investment in the kind of infrastructure needed to hook up with the several other lines on offer."

Grim is talking about logistics in terms of integrating Afghanistan, and its economy, into the wider global economy; in other words: nation-building.

The same problems complicate the logistical effort necessary to support our military (and diplomatic) efforts in Afghanistan.

"If we walk away from the dead, though, there is a debt of honor owed. We must have a reckoning with those who led us to this place."

The same could have been said about our war dead from Vietnam, a reckoning long overdue.

2/1

re: "A new Great Generation?"

Guest poster Free0352 at blonde sagacity ("the conservative that liberals hate to love") laid out the generational implications for America.

Money quote(s):

"The 9/11 Generation? I guess it's as good a name as any. I was born at the tail end of Generation X in 1979. However, I grew up more Nu-Metal than Grunge. We were tech savvy, introspective kids - we didn't have much in common with our weepy, overly socially conscious older siblings. The X'ers were individuals, we were almost collective joiners. If the Boomers had Woodstock, the X'ers had Kirk Cobain's death and a youth of unmatched prosperity they didn't appreciate and complained constantly about... we had Columbine and a certain stained blue dress. Nobody expected much from us beyond the hope we wouldn't become addicted to Ecstasy and blow each other away at school. The Boomers and X'ers screamed at the world, they wanted to be heard. We were quiet and withdrawn - encased in our computers off in la-la land. If Bob Dillon spoke to the world and Kirk Cobain screamed at it the best we could muster was a lengthy text message. We didn't want to be heard. As children of divorce when we grew to become young adults, we wanted to belong.

Then some of us went to war. Less than 1% of Americans serve today in the military. That's a pretty far cry from the WWII Generation, who even if they didn't go away to war stayed home and fed the arsenal of democracy and made huge sacrifices in austerity to see the war effort through. Back then celebrities sold war bonds, today they call us war criminals. Did this generation sacrifice. Well, 1% of them did.

Many Boomers lost their innocence in the jungles of Vietnam, forced into a war they had not interest in fighting via the draft. It was traumatic for all concerned, and veterans did their best to forget and civilians did their best to ignore them. We haven't been forgotten, we've been honored and thanked and taken care of better than our WWII forbears. We were even TIME's 2003 "Person" OF THE YEAR. When you thank us, we awkwardly thank you back and carry on. We don't expect all this, and wonder why the Vietnam veterans didn't get it. We wish you'd thank them." (Bold typeface added for emphasis. - CAA.)

The young troops, who are the captains and staff NCOs (and below) who enlisted or were commissioned after 9/11 do make up the bulk of this 1%. They joined a post-Vietnam, post-Reagan build-up (and post-Cold War draw-down) military which had as its architects the military leadership which cut its teeth in Vietnam. While most of those (Boomer) prime movers retired in the decade after Gulf War I, today's military remains their legacy.

The more senior troops of this 1% are themselves either Boomers or X-ers. And having been among them, I learned to have a full measure of respect for what I then termed "the Nintendo generation" but which had even then already moved on to the XBox.

"My generation is very pain averse... so seeking out discomfort and pain was the ultimate act of rejection and rebellion. My generation suffered the highest divorce rates of any before it. My peers and I were young men raised by women. Most of my fellow Marines were looking for something masculine. The ultimate rejection of the female way of life forced on us at home, in school, and in popular culture. We were sick of everyone getting a trophy just for playing. We wanted to see what we were made of when mommy wasn't there to pick us up when we fell. The Marines were our own little Fight Club. It's mostly that way for Soldiers too."

Mostly. Although the "be all that you can be" mentality was sadly replaced by someDamnthing or another even as Uncle Sam's Misguided Children kept a death grip on their "looking for a few good men" brand.

"It seemed the longer I was part of the Military Culture the more alien civilians became. It was like I was from strange foreign culture to them, and they to me. I was from Accountability, Responsibility, No-Excuses Land, they from somewhere else that involved MTV, video games and complaining. I found myself gravitating more to Vietnam and WWII veterans than people my own age, whom I had nothing in common with anymore.

Now after ten years we are coming home for real - for ever. Coming home and staying there. The military is drawing down in the next few years, 45,000 Soldiers alone will be forced out of the only home we've known for a decade. Likely many more will follow as the Air Force and Navy contract even more. Some veterans have done a tour or two, others as many as eight. Now we put down our gear and take off our uniforms and look around and find ourselves on that alien planet called America and wonder what to do now. We are not part of whatever this generation is called. We're it's aliens. Prodigal son's returned home. Very alien, very different.

No, The 9/11 Generation isn't special in and of it's self. But 1% of it is, because unlike our peers we don't consider ourselves special. We've been part of a team. Today we're banding together, taking care of each other as we did in war. In a way we're the newest wave of refugees from Iraq or Afghanistan - the places that have dominated every segment of our lives these last ten years." (Emphasis in original text. - CAA.)

CAA hopes earnestly that this group of "refugees" doesn't inflict its national cuisine (MREs) on America the way other immigrant groups usually do.

"We are taking our rightful place in America. We're running for Congress, starting businesses, we're in your neighborhood. Our peers whine about everything, they are slow and weak and complain constantly when they don't get a trophy simply for playing. But we're out there, under the radar now. Different. Alien. But like our Greatest Generation Grandfathers we might save you - though there are considerably fewer of us.

So is this over all, the Second Greatest Generation? Probably not. But we veterans - the tiny 1% might be. Maybe what America needs to save it, are a few veterans? Why not, they certainly did after WWII? Perhaps the Military loss is America's gain?

Soon thousands of disciplined, hard working, courageous, focused young people will be injected into the labor force or graduate college on the Post 9/11 GI Bill. America is a wreck and it's only going to get worse... but we veterans have seen failed states and anarchy and worse. This bad economy and chaos doesn't scare us. We've fixed broken countries before in far worse condition."

For values of "fix," of course. Hopefully the U.S. won't pose the sort of obstacles ("Mahdi Army," Taliban, AQI, &tc.) that the other ones did.

"We don't have an "entitlement mentality," our greatest gift is our "NO EXCUSES" mentality. We've learned to do, and do it quietly, without thanks or complaint. We've learned the world isn't fair, and not to quit. In short, the war gave us the tools our peers lack to make it in this economy, or any economy. We reshaped the most volatile piece of geography on Earth, the United States should be easy in comparison.So will whoever gets elected in 2012 save us? Maybe. But don't trust to that. Trust to that small, tiny 1% of young Americans. I have had the chance to witness them do things that defy imagination, both in work and in heroism. Wait to you see it in your neighborhood."

&

"It's been a lot longer than any of us thought, and it's still not completely over. But now we are beginning to come home - and we bring with us our skills, our discipline, our hard work, and our heroism. It's as if all that was good in the post 9/11 Generation were encapsulated in this small band of brothers... the 1% that can change the tide... coming to a neighborhood near you."

9/7

re: "Prine on Abrams and Primary Sources"

Gian Gentile at Small Wars Journal ("facilitates the exchange of information among practitioners, thought leaders, and students of Small Wars, in order to advance knowledge and capabilities in the field") comments on some interesting military scholarship.

Money quote(s):

"What prompted Carl’s post was a newly released set of volumes by Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) that contain a series of discussions between President Nixon and Henry Kissinger during the Easter Offensive in Spring of 1972 regarding the performance of the MAC-V commander, Creighton Abrams. Pay attention to the quote that Carl cites where Nixon and Kissinger are seriously considering relieving Abrams. Their frustration with Abrams had to do with how Abrams conceived of using firepower delivered by B52s. Abrams wanted to concentrate most if not all of the B-52s to thwart the NVA offensive along the Ho Chi Minh Trail and in South Vietnam, whereas Nixon and Kissinger saw an opportunity to use the B52s and massive amounts of firepower to pummel Hanoi and other key strategic points in North Vietnam in order to force a better political compromise at the negotiations table." (Bold type added for emphasis. - CAA.)

Two different vantage points: Saigon and Washington. Two different sets of priorities and agendas: theater and strategy/grand strategies.

Vietnam Syndrome

This will be BHO's Vietnam.

In fact, in the future, the Vietnam war will be called "LBJ's Libya."

S&S - JMRC replacing ‘Huey’ helicopters next year

From my archive of press clippings:

Stars and Stripes

JMRC replacing ‘Huey’ helicopters next year

By Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes


European edition, Friday, March 27, 2009

Seth Robson / S&S
U.S. UH-1 Hueys drop German personnel during air assault training Wednesday at Hohenfels, Germany. The Army will phase out the Hueys next year at the training center.

HOHENFELS, Germany — The Army will replace its fleet of UH-1 "Huey" helicopters with new UH-72 Lakotas next year at the Joint Multinational Readiness Center.

Read the whole article here.

Snippet(s):

"The aircraft were built in the early 1970s and some saw combat in Vietnam, although they have had most of their parts replaced many times, the 47-year-old Dexter, Maine, native said. The Huey became the signature aircraft of Vietnam, starring in television dramas and movies such as "Apocalypse Now," which featured a squadron of UH-1s assaulting a target accompanied by Wagner’s "Ride of the Valkyries."

This month, JMRC officials are training the last group of pilots who will operate Hueys at Hohenfels, said Maupin, who has been flying UH-1s since 1986."

"One of only five senior instructor pilots for the Huey left in the Army, Maupin will retire next month."

&

"The National Guard will retire its 70 Hueys in September with the last of the Army’s machines due to leave the service by 2012"

S&S - Airman’s remains found in Vietnam

Stars and Stripes

Airman’s remains found in Vietnam


Pacific edition, Sunday, April 5, 2009


The remains of a Phoenix airman were found in Vietnam and will be returned to his family for burial with full military honors, the Department of Defense POW/Missing Personnel Office said Thursday.

Read the whole article here.

Snippet(s):

"Lt. Col. Earl P. Hopper Jr. was flying in a four-ship combat patrol near Hanoi on Jan. 10, 1968, when his F-4D Phantom was hit by a surface-to-air missile. Hopper’s co-pilot, Capt. Keith Hall, said he told Hopper to eject, but Hopper’s ejection seat wouldn’t release."

ES - Vietnamese orphans for sale

Eureka Street

Vietnamese orphans for sale


Sarah Nichols February 20, 2009I

It was another humid day at the orphanage when we noticed a van pull up outside. We were playing with the children in the cement playground, an enclosed area protecting us from the sun. Through the dimness into the bright light of the entrance we saw that a group of Americans had arrived to collect their adoptive Vietnamese babies.

Read the whole article here.

PI - Seeing adoption as extending family ties

From my archive of press clippings:

Philadelphia Inquirer

Seeing adoption as extending family ties

Posted on Mon, Jun. 2, 2008

By Jane M. Von Bergen Inquirer Staff Writer

Isaac cuddled his daughter, Lila Olivia, 15 weeks old, against his shoulder yesterday, nuzzling her head, and smoothing her little pink flowered dress.

Read the whole article.

Snippet(s):

"Fostering open relationships is what social worker Maxine Chalker had in mind when she founded the agency in 1985.

Chalker, an adoptee, had successfully searched for her birth mother.

The agency handled 343 domestic and international adoptions last year, including Angelina Jolie's adoption of son Pax from Vietnam."

ABC - Corruption Halts Vietnam Adoptions by Americans. U.S. Concerns of Baby Buying in Vietnam Leave Many Americans Hoping to Adopt in Limbo.

From my archive of press clippings:

ABC News

Corruption Halts Vietnam Adoptions by Americans. U.S. Concerns of Baby Buying in Vietnam Leave Many Americans Hoping to Adopt in Limbo.

By KAREN RUSSO

HANOI, Vietnam May 15, 2008— Limbo looks like this: a tidy one-room apartment decorated with baby toys and just enough space for a crib and a twin bed.

Read the whole article here.

Snippet(s):

"In the wake of allegations of corruption and baby-selling, Vietnam recently terminated its adoption agreement with the United States.

The last applications must be filed by July 1 and the program will be ended on Sept. 1."

"So far this fiscal year, more than 400 American families have opened adoption cases there.

Evidence suggests that some babies believed to be available for adoptions were actually bought or stolen, according to the U.S. State Department.

In addition, some Americans have allegedly been asked to make enormous "contributions" to orphanages or individuals to complete their adoption procedures."

&

"In the world of international adoptions, the question of abandonment is perhaps the most significant question.

For U.S. State Department officials, the question of abandonment, or in some cases relinquishment, determines if or when they grant the child a visa to go to the United States.

In some cases, they have found that mothers were coerced into relinquishing their children and concluded there was no abandonment.

"Over a period of several months, in the course of doing our normal verification operations on visa applications for adoptions, we've uncovered an awful lot of fraud," said Michael Michalak, U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam. "We have worked with the government of Vietnam to fix this system, but it seems that the government of Vietnam does not have enough enforcement capability or enough legal authority to make the system work."

The State Department released a memorandum last month citing corruption in the adoption system, after which Vietnam announced that it would stop accepting adoption applications from American families.

In 2003, the U.S. suspended all adoptions from Vietnam over concerns about corruption, but a new agreement was reached between the two countries in 2006.

Since that agreement took effect, more than 1,200 Vietnamese children were adopted by Americans.

There are 43 U.S. adoption agencies operating in Vietnam, all competing for the same babies."