Daily Beast - Rex Tillerson Is Not Going to Fire the Top Asia Diplomat Bannon Hates

Of course, this is eclipsed by today's latest leaks from the White House.

Spencer Ackerman at the Daily Beast ("Independent. Irreverent. Intelligent.") interpreted the present and predicted the future.

Money quote(s):

"The State Department is standing firmly behind a senior Asia-focused diplomat under attack by Steve Bannon."

That is a nice thing to see.

"Thornton is a widely respected and non-ideological career diplomat"

At that level, most of them are.  Both.  (Or they are neither.)

"Bannon’s pledge to remove Thornton from State is the latest chapter in a long-running feud between Tillerson and the White House. For months, the Secretary of State has pushed back against efforts to meddle in his affairs and undermine his top aide, even reportedly yelling at White House personnel official over their resistance to making Thornton the permanent assistant secretary."

I don't mind a secstate who will raise his voice in support of his personnel picks.

"Haas said that the only reason for dumping Thornton was to ensure her position goes to a political loyalist.

“The only rationale I can think of for seeking to get rid of her is fact she’s a foreign service officer,” he said. “As a lapsed foreign service officer myself, I find that deeply disappointing – that anyone would be disqualified on basis having devoted their life, being sent around world, working long hours in high stress, for low pay, for the sole purpose of advancing America’s interest.” "

The real ideologues come and go with each administration.  They're called political appointees.  And with the housecleaning across State's sub-cabinet level earlier this year, the message should be clear among the career folks in both civil and foreign services.

"But if recent reports turn out to be true, Thornton may stick around longer in her gig than Bannon in his."

I suppose he'll go back to Breitbart.Com.  Which hasn't been the same since Andrew died.

re: "Chinese Dragons and Russian Bears"

"Sam Huntington" at Always On Watch ("Semper Vigilans") reviewed strategic issues involving our near-peer competitors.

Money quote(s):

"(A) far more dangerous situation is developing in Asia. No surprise, Americans are not hearing about any of this from the state-run media. Here are a few examples:

· China is claiming island territory within fifty miles of the Philippines.

· Chinese frigates regularly intruded Philippine territorial waters.

· Chinese ships fired upon Philippine fishing boats.

· Chinese naval vessels rammed Vietnamese fishing boats (See Note 1)

· Chinese accost Indian naval vessels operating off the coast of Vietnam, demanding to know why they are operating in Chinese waters.

· Chinese military aircraft intrude into Taiwanese air space.

· China intruded Japanese mainland territorial waters on 14 occasions.

· China intruded Okinawa territorial waters on 10 occasions.

· China created six major incidents with the US Navy at sea.

· Raise your hand if you aren’t aware that North Korea is China’s redheaded stepchild.

Note 1: Vietnam possesses one of the world’s largest armies: (China: 4.5 million, Vietnam: 5.9 million)."

You know the one about amateurs studying tactics and professionals studying logistics?

Well, in terms of international relations, geopolitics, and grand strategy, the professionals are studying China.

"Danger of a regional conflict is real. The consequence to China’s arrogance has been a dramatic increase in military spending among Southeast Asian countries. Australia, Japan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan have all dedicated billions of dollars on new or upgraded military hardware. The United States is upgrading naval facilities in Guam —so much so that Representative Hank Johnson(D-GA) worries the island may capsize. Nevertheless, all of these countries recognize the wisdom of pooling their resources to keep China in check; Japan has taken the lead in establishing mutual defense cooperatives with Australia, South Korea, India, and the United States. Singapore has offered to provide bases for the US Navy."

CAA no longer worries that Guam will become overburdened, over-balanced, and capsize, having received assurances that Guam possesses a sufficiently sturdy keel and gyroscopic stabilizer.

"Owing to the fact that we don’t know what motivates Chinese behavior, the Australian General Staff worries that a mistake could lead to disastrous consequences —particularly when it is likely that China will attempt to use its military to enforce a Chinese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

The problem is that while demanding that other nations treat Chinese EEZs as its sovereign territory, China routinely refuses to acknowledge the EEZs of other nations. From the standpoint of international law, EEZs are not sovereign territory. We can therefore see how China might regard the US Navy’s mission to safeguard open sea-lanes as an intolerable trespass —a situation that could lead to deadly confrontation."

It's the old "what's-mine-is-mine-what's-yours-is-negotiable" attitude turned somewhat sideways: China will use existing international norms and fora to its own advantage and ignore those which infringe upon its own interests. That's what one does when one is the center of the Earth, after all.

"Some politicians argue that given China’s dependence on global trade, a deadly confrontation is unlikely. They may have forgotten that economic ties did not hinder German aggression at the beginning of the 20^th Century —a costly mistake for France. ....but here is where we find the real and present danger. Defense cuts may encourage China to challenge allied nations within the region of Southeast Asia —they are that arrogant."

Nor did close economic ties deflect World War I; for that matter, the United States' close economic ties with Saudi Arabia deter the 9/11 attacks.

(Marx notwithstanding, man is not solely, nor even primarily, an economic animal.)

"From Russia’s perspective, there couldn’t be a better time to threaten the United States and NATO with pre-emptive strikes unless we agree to cancel the so-called Missile Defense Shield, designed as a safeguard from Iranian ICBMs."

This seems a little over-the-top; threatening pre-emptive strikes is way more sabre-rattling than is necessary. Russia has far more effective economic and political levers to pull than jacking things up on the defcon meter.

"If one understands international relations, Russia’s timing couldn’t be better. We should anticipate this sort of behavior by an adversary whenever they perceive American leadership as weak, incompetent, ineffective, or confused."

Harsh words, but hardly unwarranted.

The "reset" button must have been like those ones installed near crosswalks: not really wired to anything but they give pedestrians something to do with their hands while waiting for the lights to change.

"This situation should once again remind us that American politicians and diplomats seldom learn important lessons of history. America cannot afford another war right now. Neither can we afford the perception of weakness, incompetence, or abject stupidity. We continue to live in a dangerous world"

Diplomats actually aren't slouches when it comes to learning their history lessons; however if you expand your definition of "diplomat" beyond those actually trained and experienced in it to those who practice it on our behalf at the highest levels....

"Rather than facing a deadly and costly regional conflict in Southeast Asia, it would be far less expensive to deter Chinese aggression vis-à-vis a strong military presence along the Pacific Rim. As for the Russian Bear, they understand but one thing: force or its promise."

5/4

re: "North Korean Embassy Running An Illegal Casino On The Side"

Niccolo Machiavelli at Big Peace shows us how other countries pay for their embassy operations.

Money quote(s):

"Who says the North Koreans don’t understand capitalism?"

Clearly they get capitalism.

(It's those pesky human rights that have them absolutely stumped.)

"The casino and the Embassy proper are separated by a fence, and only guests with bookings can enter. The casino has four roulette tables on the second floor, five poker and blackjack tables and around 30 slot machines, while the third floor is reserved for VIP guests.

Russia banned casinos in major cities in July 2009, sending casino operators underground and prompting them to rent buildings belonging to foreign governments in a bid to take advantage of their extraterritorial status.

Citing experts, Izvestia said there is no way North Korean diplomats were unaware that their building was being used as a casino, and it is likely that it connived as a means to earn foreign currency for the regime.”"

I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!

re: "Upping the Ante"

Spook86 at In From the Cold ("Musings on Life, Love, Politics, Military Affairs, the Media, the Intelligence Community and Just About Anything Else that Captures Our Interest") evaluates the Korean situation.

Money quote(s):

"Historically, all responses to Pyongyang's provocations have been deliberate and measured, and limited to political and diplomatic measures. While North Korea has routinely targeted U.S. and ROK military personnel for decades, we have been extremely reluctant to return the favor.

Now may be the time to return the favor. As Kim Jong-il pushes the peninsula towards the brink, the U.S. and South Korea must be clear in explaining the consequences of future attacks--and be willing to follow through. One reason the DPRK has grown so emboldened is a consistent lack of action on the part of the United States and our allies in Seoul. Recent history suggests North Korea has little to fear from allied bluster. At this point, they have little incentive to back down.

No one wants war on the Korean peninsula. But the feckless appeasement of Kim's regime is hardly a path to peace."

NYT - When Travelers Take Too Many Risks

From my archive of press clippings:

New York Times

When Travelers Take Too Many Risks


August 6, 2009, 7:13 pm


By The Editors


As former President Bill Clinton was working to win the release of two American journalists held in North Korea, the Iranian government was questioning three young Americans hikers who had been arrested for crossing the Iraqi border and illegally entering Iran.

Read the whole article here.

WP - Special Contacts Aided Release

From my archive of press clippings:


Washington Post

Special Contacts Aided Release

By Glenn Kessler

Washington Post Staff Writer


Thursday, August 6, 2009


Former president Bill Clinton's central role in the return of two journalists detained by North Korea has once again cast a spotlight on his vast web of financial and political contacts, a network that troubled senators who weighed whether to confirm his wife as secretary of state.

Read the whole article here.

AP - Hillary Clinton: Reporters 'excited' to come home

From my archive of press clippings:

Associated Press

Hillary Clinton: Reporters 'excited' to come home

By MATTHEW LEE (AP) – 19 hours ago

NAIROBI, Kenya — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday that the two journalists released from North Korea are "extremely excited" to be on their way back to the United States.

Read the whole article here.

_____

Associated Press writer Steven R. Hurst in Washington contributed to this report.

LAT - Hostages of the Hermit Kingdom

Los Angeles Times



Hostages of the Hermit Kingdom

Laura Ling and Euna Lee, the two American journalists released last month after being imprisoned in North Korea, tell their story -- and remind people of the story they wanted to cover.

By Laura Ling and Euna Lee
September 1, 2009 6:28 p.m.

We arrived at the frozen river separating China and North Korea at 5 o'clock on the morning of March 17. The air was crisp and still, and there was no one else in sight. As the sun appeared over the horizon, our guide stepped onto the ice. We followed him.

Read the whole article here.

NYT - N. Korea Says It Is Holding Reporters

From my archive of press clippings:

New York Times

N. Korea Says It Is Holding Reporters


By CHOE SANG-HUN


Published: March 21, 2009


SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea confirmed Saturday that it had detained two American journalists on charges of “illegally intruding” into the North through its border with China.

Read the whole article here.

Snippet(s):

"The journalists, Laura Ling, a Chinese-American, and Euna Lee, a Korean-American, both working for Current TV, were on a reporting trip along the border when they were detained by North Korean border guards, according to human rights activists and a South Korean news report. Their colleague, Mitch Koss, and their Chinese guide were reported to have been detained by Chinese border guards."

WT - Gates mulling 3-year postings

From my archive of press clippings:

Washington Times

Gates mulling 3-year postings

Lolita C. Baldor ASSOCIATED PRESS

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

SEOUL Extending the tours of U.S. troops serving in South Korea to three years and allowing them to bring their families is overdue, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Monday as he arrived in Seoul. The change in deployments is caught up in the ongoing transfer of military bases to South Korean control, but Mr. Gates said it's time to stop the one-year, unaccompanied tours that forces currently serve here because it is considered a war zone.

Read the whole article here.

S&S - Go online, prepare to evacuate during NEO

From my archive of press clippings:

Stars and Stripes

Go online, prepare to evacuate during NEO

By Ashley Rowland, Stars and Stripes

Pacific edition, Monday, May 12, 2008

SEOUL — Civilians should pre-register online to cut their waiting time at this week’s semiannual noncombatant evacuation operation, or NEO, which runs May 15-18 at most locations.

Read the whole article here.

Snippet(s):

"The Courageous Channel exercise gives U.S. Forces Korea a chance to practice processing the 153,000 civilians it would have to evacuate from South Korea during an attack by North Korea, a natural disaster or other emergency."

"“We tell them to bring their pets just to make it a more realistic experience,” "

&

"USFK is unique among U.S. military commands in the potential number of people it might have to evacuate in an emergency — 19,000 U.S. government noncombatants, 90,000 private U.S. citizens and their families, and an estimated 44,000 citizens of countries that make up the United Nations Command, according to a 2006 U.S. Embassy report."