Tuesday, August 22, 2017
re: "Wanted: Robust Intelligence and Diplomatic Reporting"
Money quote(s):
"After I completed my assignment, I unexpectedly received kudos from analysts in the intelligence community. They pointed out how much the atmospherics I described in my reporting helped them put together their analyses.
Diplomatic and intelligence reporting work hand-in-hand. Put together, they flesh out a fulsome picture of events, players, and issues. When one component is lagging or missing, the other suffers. When policymakers ignore one or both, they are flying blind."
Throughout the IC we have some incredible analysts who are great in their various specialties, all-source and fusion-cell sorts not excluded, so it can be a very pleasant surprise to learn from them how they value diplomatic reporting. Even some of our publicly-available "open source" contributions, that convey the basic ground truths which may be common knowledge in a particular country, are valuable to analysts working inside (or near) the beltway.
"One noteworthy fallout of the WikiLeaks publication of State Department cables, leaked by Chelsea Manning, was the compliments about diplomatic reporting from journalists, academics, and others. The New York Times noted, “curious diplomats can turn out to be accomplished reporters, sending vivid dispatches to deepen the government’s understanding of exotic places,” and “the drama in the cables often comes from diplomats’ narratives of meetings with foreign figures, games of diplomatic poker in which each side is sizing up the other and neither is showing all its cards.” "
If there was a silver lining to that debacle it was this; however short-lived it may turn out to be, our reporting officers garnered some "street cred" for their work.
"(A) senior Foreign Service officer said, “It’s infuriating that even after WikiLeaks, the ‘thinking’ world and journalists in general, to say nothing of politicians, don’t understand that our stuff is America’s true bedrock intelligence.” "
It truly is. Although it may seem thankless or even pointless to draft what may seem obvious from where the writer sits abroad, what "everyone knows" in Timbuktu will be anything to an analyst struggling to understand a new portfolio.
"Practitioners know that the value of intelligence is the marrying of open source information with reporting and data collection obtained through spying. The success of U.S. intelligence is the layering of SIGINT [signals intelligence], HUMINT [human intelligence], overhead imagery, open source, and other data, with diplomatic reporting. All are necessary. One without the other yields an incomplete picture.
It is no surprise that the places where the U.S. has had intelligence and diplomatic failures over the years are places where it had no diplomatic representation – hence no diplomatic reporting and the kind of on-the-ground knowledge necessary to make informed decisions. Iraq [between 1990-2003], Iran, and North Korea are notable examples."
Read the whole thing.
Monday, February 6, 2012
re: "More Consulting"
Money quote(s):
"(S)peaking of INR (the speaker...keep up), I encourage you to get briefings with them. Too often, folks forget INR, and they are a font of knowledge. They can tailor a briefing to your clearance level, and let me tell you they are all awesome. You will only find experts of their calliber in the finest universities. And check out INR/OPN too. They do media analysis and polling in our countries. They will have some great unclassified info for you. I had two INR briefings today in addition to the Fulbrighter talk, one with the analyst and one with the analyst from OPN, and they were great.You will be better prepared for having done it."
Despite rumors to the contrary, all diplomats are not spies, nor are all U.S. diplomats secretly CIA agents. Not true. The U.S. diplomatic community is, by and large, distinct from America's intelligence community; that is, with two caveats and one exception-by-overlap.
Caveat 1: Diplomatic reporting is available for inclusion in all-source analysis just like all other sorts of reporting, such as open-source (i.e., press & media, books, &tc.), military, and actual intelligence collection products of whatever sort.
Caveat 2: Diplomats are also consumers of intelligence products. They'd be stupid not to be.
The exception, or overlap, between the diplomatic and intelligence communities is the Bureau of Intelligence and Research or INR. INR is the part of the State Dept. that's an actual part of the IC. While relatively small (as is DOS itself), INR has some very good analysts working for it and they have, within the overall IC, a reputation for "punching above their weight class." That's a good thing.
7/21
Saturday, June 25, 2011
re: "re: "This Week at War: Rise of the Irregulars" "
Money quote(s):
"Last week, the Washington Post's David Ignatius discussed how the line between the Central Intelligence Agency's covert intelligence activities and the Pentagon's military operations began blurring as George W. Bush's administration ramped up its war on terrorism. In his column, Ignatius took some swipes at former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld for exceeding his authority by encroaching on turf legally reserved to the CIA. The Defense Department also was criticized for taking on too many diplomatic and foreign aid responsibilities as well. Ignatius expressed concern that without clearer boundaries separating covert intelligence-gathering from military operations, "people at home and abroad may worry about a possible 'militarization' of U.S. intelligence."
Ignatius missed the larger and far more significant change that continues to this day. In order to survive and compete against the military power enjoyed by national armies, modern irregular adversaries -- such as the Viet Cong, Iraq's insurgents, the Taliban, and virtually all other modern revolutionaries -- "civilianized" their military operations."
Read the whole thing here.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
re: "Obama’s Next War"
Money quote(s):
"(A)n extraordinary intelligence-special forces team liquidated Osama bin Laden and drones have dispatched a number of other “high value targets” in what the President calls our “war on al Qaeda.” These are morale-boosting tactical achievements, but in the great scheme of things are more like whack-a-mole than strategic victories. Much more important is the fact that Mr. Obama is in the process of losing the two wars he inherited, and making a hash-up of the one he initiated in Libya."
Nonconcur in part. Taking UBL off the board was a strategic victory just as shooting down Adm. Yamamoto was
That being said, there's a vacuum, apparently, where the grand strategy ought to be.
"Mr. Obama’s earlier insistence on withdrawing U.S. combat forces from Iraq and his abiding determination to pull out virtually all others by year’s end has, as a practical matter, made it impossible for the government in Baghdad to ask us to stay on. Even if the Iranian puppet, Muqtada al-Sadr, were not threatening if Americans are invited to stay to relaunch his Madi army’s sectarian warfare and bring down the coalition government (in which his party is a prominent part), the Iraqis can hardly be more in favor of maintaining an American presence than we are.
The predictable result in Iraq next year (if not before) will be a vacuum of power that Iran will surely fill. State Department and other Americans left behind, in the hope that the immense investment we have made in lives and treasure in Iraq’s democratic and pro-Western future will not be squandered, stand to become endangered species. The ironic symbol of our defeat may be the takeover in due course of the immense new U.S. embassy in Baghdad by Iranians – this time by invited diplomats, not the hostage-taking “students” of 1979."
Why is Mookie still breathing? Surely this is an oversight on someone's part.
I worry about my colleagues starting assignments in Iraq these days; I don't want to find myself glued to a television screen someday in the not-to-distant future, hoping (and dreading) to see someone I know running for the last helicopter out or being paraded around as A-Jad's latest hostage. He's done it before, after all.
" In his speech last week to what he calls “the Muslim world,” the President made it U.S. policy to support whoever manages to get elected in the various nations of North Africa and the Middle East currently undergoing political upheavals. As a practical matter, that will mean legitimating, working with and underwriting the Muslim Brotherhood, since they are far and away the most organized, disciplined and ruthless of the contenders for power in country after country. History tells us that such people – from Hitler in Weimar Germany to Hamas in the Gaza Strip – win even “free and fair” elections, which then amount to one-man, one-vote, one-time. (For more on the deadly nature and agenda of the MB or Ikhwan, see last week’s column in this space.)
President Obama’s openness (to put it mildly) to bringing the Brotherhood to power was manifested not only by his pledge to forgive $1 billion in Egyptian debt and to provide it another billion in additional foreign aid. Just as he did in his last much-ballyhooed “outreach” to Muslims in Cairo two years ago, Team Obama had one of the top Muslim Brothers – Imam Mohamed Magid, president of the Ikhwan’s largest front group in this country, the Islamic Society of North America – prominently seated in the audience at the State Department."
I've mentioned ISNA's Muslim Brotherhood pedigree before.
During the course of a diplomatic career, it's not that unusual to find yourself, our your side, treating with very unpleasant and sometimes quite evil folk, as you're about your country's business of state and in the pursuit of peace. That sort of thing goes with the territory, I'm afraid. Examples including treating with Yasser Arafat even though we knew he was personally responsible for the murder of (at least) one of our ambassador. (For a transcription of the document itself, see here.)
It's still troubling and bothersome. I suppose I ought to be really worried when this sort of thing doesn't bother me.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
re: "NATO: Hey, We'll Bomb The Rebels, Too"
Ace at Ace of Spades HQ just keeps getting smarter all the time.
Money quote(s):
"If America wants to enter other states and declare a monopoly on sanctioned violence, well, that's a good way to keep outrages against civilians low, but comes at the cost of using American troops for every damn fight in the world.
If you're going to go a different way -- supporting indigenous fighters with air capabilities and intelligence -- you have to accept that there are going to be some vicious slaughters of civilians by "freedom fighters," but certainly you want as few such massacres as possible. What do you do? You can threaten an end to air cover and supply. But that doesn't thwart a slaughter in progress.
I'm not sure a threat to attack the rebels we're supporting is necessarily a bad thing. We need them to keep it clean. The temptation in any war, especially a civil one, is to get dirty and vicious as soon as possible and then keep topping yourself. Our troops don't do that (except for the occasional psychopaths who are then court martialed), but we don't want to have to insert our troops into every situation where we might want to flex some military might.
If we're going to fight in this limited fashion (and I think the old Cold War model of limited support is well worth revisiting), we do need to let our "freedom fighters" know that there are some things we just won't/can't countenance, and there's no way we can stay in a fight if our "freedom fighters" decide to unleash their inner Al Qaeda.
As for actually bombing them, though: I really can't think of a more preposterous situation than bombing both sides in a civil war.
Oh, and meanwhile, SecDef Gates said there won't be any ground troops in Libya as long as he's serving in his job. So, like, implicitly, he's threatening to walk."
&
"(O)f course, any time you have pilots in a war it means you're just one shoot-down away from a hostage situation."
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
NYT - Iran: 3 Americans Accused of U.S. Intelligence Link
New York Times
Iran: 3 Americans Accused of U.S. Intelligence Link
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: April 8, 2010
Iran’s intelligence minister accused three Americans jailed since crossing the border from Iraq in July of having links to United States intelligence services, state television reported Thursday.
Read the whole article here.
Friday, February 26, 2010
S&S - Communication stressed in first intel conference
Stars and Stripes
Communication stressed in first intel conference
By Nancy Montgomery, Stars and Stripes
Online Edition, Friday, February 19, 2010
HEIDELBERG, Germany — There were spies everywhere.
Read the whole article here.
Snippet(s):
"They came from the U.S. military services, the FBI, Interpol.
Mostly administrators, they discussed their sensors, platforms, metadata.
There were no cloaks and daggers."
&
"(S)peakers discussed the difficulties in sharing intelligence and yet the importance of doing so in countering terrorism, narcotics and human trafficking, and on the battlefield."
Thursday, February 25, 2010
S&S - Forces pay cash for intel, injuries
Stars and Stripes
Forces pay cash for intel, injuries
By Christopher Torchia, The Associated Press
Online Edition, Friday, February 19, 2010
Photo courtesy of U.S. Navy
Rear Adm. Norman Hayes, U.S. European Command's new intelligence director.
BADULA QULP, Afghanistan — The fallout of war has a price in southern Afghanistan.
U.S. Army units fighting the Taliban in Helmand province have a compensation system for any death, injury or damage to crops and buildings caused by American forces to Afghan civilians and their property.
Read the whole article here.
Snippet(s):
"Financial compensation in desperately poor Afghanistan is at least one way to alleviate distress and show the good intentions of the NATO forces, military commanders say."
&
"The system is also useful for gathering intelligence on insurgents, said 1st Sgt. Gene Hicks, of Tacoma, Wash.
The military pays villagers for information about the location of roadside bombs as well as “where they’ve seen people at, where they’ve seen people moving, where they’ve seen people shooting from,” Hicks said.
His group has paid out nearly $500 so far for information on insurgent movements alone."
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
re: "(In)Secure Communications (2)"
Money quote(s):
"(H)owever highly paid (and piscine) the guards might be, there always are people out there with more money than they have.
Which is why it all comes down to the human factor, and to such old-fashioned ideas such as loyalty and patriotism.
How do we Brits persuade foreigners with access to sensitive material to slip some of that material to us, maybe risking their lives to do so?
Money (I gather) helps, but is often not the main motivation. Best to find a way to appeal to some higher order sense of honour and duty and responsibility (with maybe a dash of personal guilt?) than they are expected to uphold in their everyday lives.
Thus the drama of intelligence work. People are more likely to betray an utterly evil system. But because it is so utterly evil it watches people like hawks and will stop at nothing to torture and kill anyone suspected of betrayal.
So the risks are appallingly high. And the skills required even to get alongside such people securely, then coax them in that direction, have to be exceptional."
&
"Sometimes someone deep in a repressive system has reached the decision to organise his life to higher principles anyway, just in case an opportunity comes along one day to live honourably. "
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
re: "Today's Good News (Chas Freeman Bows Out)"
Money quote(s):
"In our view, Mr. Freeman's positions in support of China (and against Israel) were enough to disqualify him for the NIC job. Lest we forget, the council is supposed to provide policymakers with unvarnished and unbiased information. Given his obvious biases, any National Intelligence Estimate coordinated under Freeman's watch would have been suspect, at best.
But there was another (and equally important) reason to reject Ambassador Freeman as the next council chair: his lack of intelligence experience. As a career diplomat, Mr. Freeman is a long-time consumer of intel information, but he has virtually no expertise in the underlying trade craft."
JO - The slippery slope of preventive detention
Jamaica Observer
The slippery slope of preventive detention
CLAUDE ROBINSON
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Prime Minister Bruce Golding is right about the urgency and absolute necessity of the state regaining control over every nook and cranny of Jamaica.
CLAUDE ROBINSON
"There are communities where there are others who are in control, and the security forces will have to take back control and demonstrate that they have that control," the prime minister told Parliament Tuesday in a previously unannounced major policy statement on crime and security management.
Read the whole article here.
Snippet(s):
"(I)n communities where violence had erupted, intelligence pointed the security forces to those responsible.
But while investigations were taking place, potential witnesses were killed."
"No self-respecting state could tolerate such a situation, and the Government would be in clear dereliction of its duty to provide a safe and secure environment for citizens to go about their lawful business if it did nothing."
&
"Among the measures proposed by the prime minister are an extension of the period of detention, without charge, of persons suspected of murder and gun-related charges; restriction of bail in relation to specified charges; minimum sentences; majority guilty verdicts for non-capital murder; speedier authorisation of interception of communications and the removal of right to silence in certain cases."
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
re: "An Integral Part of OEF"
Money quote(s):
"I thought it was brilliant to store ‘em at Gitmo. The alternatives were Diego Garcia or prison ships in the Indian Ocean, and the Brits would have wimped out on DG, just like we’re wimping out now.
We keep these unlawful combatants alive for two reasons:
1) Intelligence from interrogation
2) Lawfare
If it weren’t for lawfare we could execute them when their intelligence value has been exhausted. Lawfare, according to Colonel Charles Dunlap,
describes a method of warfare where law is used as a means of realizing a military objective. There are many dimensions to lawfare,They will end up turning most of them loose. Probably about 10% will go back to Jihad. They will kill people. The MSM will bury those stories. They’ll be too busy providing megaphones for the few we bother to try in court, who will probably go scott free."
but the one ever more frequently embraced by U.S. opponents is a cynical manipulation of the rule of law and the humanitarian values it represents. Rather than seeking battlefield victories, per se, challengers try to destroy the will to fight by undermining the public support that is indispensable when democracies like the U.S. conduct military interventions.”25
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
re: "Obama CIA pick- The lurch left begins"
Money quote(s):
"(P)icking Leon Panetta to run the CIA is absolutely ludicrous."
"Panetta has no ties to any intel related activities beyond doing some accounting work on their budgets."
&
"This pick rates an F.
Michael Ledeen disconcurs saying loyalty in a completely disloyal agency is more important than spy knowledge."
Friday, January 2, 2009
JO - Commissioner Lewin doing a good job
Jamaica Observer
Commissioner Lewin doing a good job
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Dear Editor,
I wish to congratulate the commissioner of police, Rear Admiral Hardley Lewin, on the professional job that he has been doing since being appointed.
Read the whole letter here.
Snippet:
"It is imperative that the intelligence arm of the force be adequately funded and staffed by the Government in order to allow the police force to diligently gather the well-needed intelligence to successfully tackle the country's serious murder and drug problems."
