re: "Re: Will the Pentagon Always Be Able to Evacuate Americans from Hotspots?"

Mark Krikorian at The Corner ("a web-leading source of real-time conservative opinion") takes a stab at answering Michael Rubin's question.

Money quote(s):

"(Y)our point about the thousands of Lebanese with dual U.S. citizenship raises an important point — why should a U.S. Marine, who enlisted to defend his fellow countrymen from harm, risk his life rescuing people who have not fully committed to the American nation? Dual citizenship — a “self-evident absurdity” in TR’s words — means, in this case, people who want to live in Lebanon, as Lebanese, and perhaps even vote there, but who also want to make sure that if things go bad someone else will risk his life to rescue them."

Lebanon blew up pretty quickly, as I recall. Lots of college and h.s. age kids visiting their grandparents back in the old country. And lots of naturalized U.S. citizens who decided their retirement dollars would stretch further back in said old country; not necessarily folks who've done anything wrong or falsely.

Americans take it as their God-given and Constitutional right that they can go anywhere without hindrance, that they can live and work where they please, and then if things go "South," Big Sam will come and get them. And their relatives back in each of those congressmembers' districts have the same assumption. So it would definitely behoove them to have Mr. Rubin's question somewhere in the back of their collective minds.

(Disclaimer: Like many people in my line of work, I participated, however tangentally, in support of the Lebanon evacuation. Collectively, we were able to help a lot of people get out of harm's way. It's a part of my life's body of work of which I'm justifiably somewhat proud.

And at the same time, as new reports about other country's dual nationals and legal residents came out, about how people who were supposedly refugees from Lebanon had moved back and were living off of the public assistance received, as refugees, from those European countries.... well, I'm sure we have our share of welfare and public assistance fraudsters too. But asking, or looking for answers, of such questions is way down on the to-do list when you're scrambling to organize an evacuation.)

re: "Will the Pentagon Always Be Able to Evacuate Americans from Hotspots?"

Michael Rubin at The Corner ("a web-leading source of real-time conservative opinion") asks a most excellent question.

Money quote(s):

"In Lebanon alone, the number of American citizens numbered in the tens of thousands, even though many hold dual citizenship and perhaps only a fraction would request assistance. Add Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen to the mix, and it becomes an open question whether the American military has enough forces in the region to evacuate American citizens should violence (or insurance companies) prevent airplanes from flying into unsettled countries."

"Cutting force projection not only affects future combat missions but also humanitarian relief whether in the form of evacuations or tsunami relief."

&

"(A) vote for cuts would not only undercut the ability to project force globally but would also remove the ability to protect American citizens should many countries simultaneously experience unrest.

Congressmen should also ask the State Department to explain how, in the aftermath of broad-based defense cuts, they will manage evacuations of American citizens absent the same level of military assistance that they can count on now."

re: "Give Appeasement a Chance"

Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex. Enjoy!") correctly evaluates a bone-head idea.

Money quote(s):

"“Many” private contractors may not be protected by diplomatic immunity, but it is the asserted position of the US government that Davis certainly is. Following Mr. Harrison’s recommendations all they way to their logical terminus would leave US diplomats world-wide vulnerable to the savagely swinging moods of local streets.

That may sound like a logical way to order the foreign policy apparatus to Mr. Harrison, but I very much doubt the pin-striped pant set at State will agree with him."

re: "Gates of Vienna News Feed 2/7/2011"

Baron Bodissey at Gates of Vienna ("At the siege of Vienna in 1683 Islam seemed poised to overrun Christian Europe.We are in a new phase of a very old war.") has a follow-on development on the big news from Munich this week.

Money quote(s):

“British Prime Minister David Cameron followed up on his declaration that Multiculturalism has failed in the UK by ordering the removal of funding from suspicious Muslim community groups. Such groups have previously received state funds in a bid to reach troubled youth and discourage them from turning to extremism, but the prime minister believes they may be soft on terrorism.”

This takes Angela Merkels comments about the failure of multiculturalism to another level entirely.

re: ""The Perfect Day" and Our Terrorist Opponent's Possible Plans For Future Attacks"

LTC (RET) Dave Grossman (author of On Combat) at Guns & Patriots puts some history into useful context for today.

Money quote(s):

"I have been told (by those conducting interviews with captured enemy combatants) that when we ask them "What is coming next?" they sometimes refer to the "Perfect Day." You cannot understand what they are talking about if you do not understand the historical reference.

The Sepoy Mutiny in India, in 1857, is an example of a "Perfect Day." This was a spontaneous uprising by Muslims (and Hindus), with everyone giving the British their "best shot." Nannies killed the kids, cooks poisoned the food, and shop owners murdered the British ladies as they came into the shop. And soldiers (sometimes complete units) killed their British officers and then used their weapons to attack the British.

The current politically correct term for the Sepoy Mutiny is "The First Indian rebellion." "

""The First Indian rebellion" is, to them, George Washington, Abe Lincoln, and the Alamo all rolled into one. And 99% of Westerners have never heard about it.

In their dreams and fond imaginations, this is what will happen across all of the "Crusader nations" who are in Afghanistan. Pick a day, and everyone gives it their best shot. If just one-in-a-thousand of the Islamic people in our nations answer the call to Jihad, it will still be thousands of attackers ... Some will opt for a "John Mohamed/Malvo" whacking people from the trunks of cars. Others for a Virginia Tech lone gunman in the school. Others will attack school busses, nannies will kill the kids, clerks will kill customers, cooks (in the elementary school?) will poison the cool-aid. Etc, etc.

The enemy thinks big, and we (with wishful thinking compounded by ignorance of their history) keep thinking small. The goal of this Perfect Day (in addition to terror) is to make us imprison (intern) our Islamic populations (as we did to the Japanese in WWII), thus making this a 'war against Islam' instead of the current war against terrorist groups and Islamist fundamentalists."

"This is their dream. Our goal is to prevent it through thru: careful study and understanding of their history and culture; assimilation (the French are an excellent example if what not to do in this area); and – most importantly – deterrence and detection, which is what I teach in my classes.

The enemy can be deterred! They fear one thing. They fear failure! They are not afraid to die: some of them want to die. But they desperately do not want to die for nothing! And our goal is to win a battle in the minds of millions of Islamic people in our nation, who are asking the key question: Can I succeed? Can I get a body count?"

&

"(S)tates like Illinois, and Wisconsin (the only two states with absolutely no concealed carry for anyone, anyhow, ever), or California, Massachusetts, and others (with very stringent and limited concealed carry laws) are the most likely targets for this kind of attack.

The time may come when (like Israel) we need armed riders on every school bus and armed guards in every school and ever daycare center. And the only way that we can do so is (like Israel) to depend on armed citizens and armed teachers to protect their children.

The millions of Americans who are buying guns are not foolish. I would submit that they are doing the one thing that individual citizens can do, and that is to arm themselves. This is America. When faced with a threat we don't take away rights, we give you more rights!"


-----

Hat tip to Col. B. Bunny at Eternity Road.

re: "Defense Budget Cuts"

James Joyner at Outside the Beltway ("an online journal of politics and foreign affairs analysis") takes Stephanie Guttman to school, batting her "low-hanging fruit" out of the park.

Money quote(s):

"(M)ost of the low hanging fruit has been plucked at this point. The only way to achieve real savings is to cut back on the operational tempo. If we expect our military to be able to deploy anywhere, any time and stay for years on end performing counterinsurgency or stability operations, then we’re going to have to expect to continue pouring absurd amounts of money into Defense."

re: "U.S. Policy in Mubarak's Egypt: Harder Than It Looks "

Abu Muqawama ("dedicated to following issues related to contemporary insurgencies as well as counterinsurgency tactics and strategy") at the Center for New American Security ("Developing Strong, Pragmatic and Principled National Security and Defense Policies") highlights some on-point thinking by Pincus.

Money quote(s):

"In short, it was relatively easy to predict the trainwreck on the horizon. It was difficult, by contrast, to use what leverage the United States had over Egypt to avert the disaster. "

re: "Our Friends in Islamabad"

Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex. Enjoy!") has some news about the Raymond Davis case that I haven't seen anywhere else.

re: "My Optimism About Europe"

Daniel Pipes at DanielPipes.Org ("Although Mr. Pipes rarely writes about sex, this subject dominates the readership totals in all three of his formats: articles ") says:

"Perhaps alone in the coterie focused on the Islamist threat to Europe, I am cheerful these days. That's because I see the anti-Islamist reaction growing even more quickly than the Islamist threat itself."

Read why.

re: "Quiet in Cairo"

Dr. Jerry Pournelle at Chaos Manor ("The Original Blog *") comments on a recent Wikileaks disclosure.

Money quote(s):

"WikiLeaks continue to show the consequences of empire by bureaucracy. They also have a consequence: it is always difficult to get ones foreign service to be candid with their bosses, and the senior State department career officials to be candid with their political masters. Now that everyone can see there is a real danger that anything they write or say can be part of a Washington Post -- or Fox News -- article for all the world to see, that becomes even more difficult. Few in Washington actually know what is going on overseas, because few in Washington and even fewer of those we send out as diplomatic officers know any history of either the world or the region to which they are sent; now they'll all learn and say less about what they find when they report. Welcome to the candid world. Open diplomacy openly arrived at."

-----

Agree with it, disagree with it; the point is still valid even if some of the criticism seems off-target. Outside of academia itself, it's hard to find a group of people so interested in the world and its history as my FSO colleagues.

re: "Are you smarter than a US diplomat?"

Curzon at Coming Anarchy ("Speak Victorian, Think Pagan") has issued a challenge.

re: "Nature Abhors a Vaccuum and So Does Politics: Muslim Brotherhood to Negotiate Directly With Government"

Thanks to Kat-Mo at The Middle Ground for the mention and the link.

(I think.)

Applicable quote(s):

"We need real contingency plans to act on instead of, as Consul at Arms says, "hope" and "expectations". "

re: "Smart Diplomacy and Finger Bowls"

MikeM at Confederate Yankee ("Because liberalism is a persistent vegetative state") has some things to say about the state of U.S. diplomacy.

Money quote(s):

"The credibility of the State Department under Mr. Obama is so small that it may not be detectable by an electron microscope. In fact, American diplomats seem most adept at insulting and denigrating America in foreign capitals and convincing our enemies that they have nothing to fear from America."

re: "Domino Theory of Democracy: Current Events Failure of Unified US Policy"

Thanks to Kat-Mo at The Middle Ground for the mention and the link.

Relevant passage(s):

"As the Consul At Arms points out, people are already pointing the finger, trying to figure out who to blame for not seeing Egypt's shake up and Mubarek's fall from power. There is already a cry that this was a massive failure of intelligence, but, as CAA points out, this is not an intelligence issue, but a policy failure."

re: "You've Been Asked To Assist With an Evacuation. Now What?"

Paul Mayer at DipNote ("U.S. Department of State official blog") tells us what it's like to "answer the call."

Money quote(s):

"What do you do when you when you're a State Department consular officer and you're asked to travel halfway around the world, on very short notice, to assist with a crisis the breadth of which is still unknown?

First, you ask permission. When I was asked on Sunday, January 30 whether I would be willing to fly to assist in the evacuation of U.S. citizens from Egypt, the first person I asked was my wife."

Damn skippy you do!

"After having endured separation when I traveled to Haiti in January 2010, my wife asked if I really wanted to go.

I did. I wanted to go because the duty to assist U.S. citizens in a crisis is one of the State Department's core responsibilities. Colleagues in the Bureau of Consular Affairs and the Operations Center's Crisis Management and Support office work and plan diligently for this sort of thing. They run exercises at embassies and consulates worldwide. They help you get prepared in advance, help you think how many people will need to travel, where they'll need to go, and how long they'll stay. They help us get the airplane tickets and they tell us where we'll be sleeping (even if it's on the floor of the embassy). They have our backs every step of the way."

Read the whole thing.

re: "Egypt: The Blame Game Begins. Sigh. "

Abu Muqawama ("dedicated to following issues related to contemporary insurgencies as well as counterinsurgency tactics and strategy") at the Center for New American Security ("Developing Strong, Pragmatic and Principled National Security and Defense Policies") demonstrates uncommon good sense.

Money quote(s):

"(I)t was inevitable that in Washington, people would start asking "Who Lost Egypt?" before it was even clear what, exactly, is happening there."

&

"(L)ong ago the U.S. government had identified the fall or death of Hosni Mubarak as a likely contingency to plan toward. Everyone knew this was going to happen eventually. So I think the blame being heaped on the intelligence community here is a little silly. Intelligence cannot predict the future, though it can assist policy-makers in gaming out possible contingencies, and I think our intelligence services did that here."

&

"Even when administrations have decided to pressure Mubarak, by the way, they have found that the ~$1.5b we give Egypt annually has been a largely ineffective source of leverage. (Though it has, I would argue, helped foster now-invaluable connections with Egypt's military. Those last two sentences should serve as a warning for any legislators out there threatening to cut our aid.)"

re: "ANOTHER MASSIVE INTELLIGENCE FAILURE"

Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit ("I can take vacations, etc., and not feel any gnawing need to be at the computer.") continues following the finger-pointing narrative.

Money quote(s):

"Considering what we spend, I don’t think we’re getting our money’s worth."

It's a point of view.

But it's a great big world out there, and U.S. interests stretch to pretty much all of it. Collecting, analyzing, disseminating, &tc., through all the means, covert and otherwise, is a non-trivial task, and one for which we are constantly re-assessing our ability and capabilities to accomplish.

And that's exactly the point, we're constantly evaluating how we do things and trying to come up with better ways to do it. That's how we learn from mistakes (when they're made) and improve.

re: "An Intelligence Failure In The Middle East?"

Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway ("an online journal of politics and foreign affairs analysis") critiques the inevitable casting about for a fall guy.

Money quote(s):

"(M)any in Washington are expressing disappointment that the U.S. intelligence community seemingly missed the warning signs"

You mean, like Tunesia's "Jasmine Revolution"? Or like the fact that Mubarak was almost 82?

" I’ve got to agree with Ed Morrissey that there’s really very little to this criticism, and it looks to me like we’re seeing people in power stake out their positions for a “Who Lost Egypt?” debate should that come to pass"

It's right there! Right where it's always been! It was never ours to begin with!

"(D)ocuments from the Wikileaks diplomatic cables dump show that the U.S. has been concerned for years about the question of who would succeed Hosni Mubarak, and that we spend the last several years providing behind the scenes support to dissident groups in Egypt"

I can neither confirm nor deny (even if I knew, which I don't) whether this last is true, especially since FSOs (and others) have been directly ordered not to access Wikileaks.

"(O)n some level, the idea that the intelligence community missed anything here is simply absurd."

Remember: no policy failures, only intelligence failures. Or, alternatively, diplomatic failures.

&

"Anyone in Washington who says they didn’t see this coming is either lying or they weren’t paying attention to the world around them."

re: "There Is No Place Like Home"

James R. Rummel at Chicago Boyz ("Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit.") notices a recent personnel action.

Money quote(s):

"(S)ome of the diplomats assigned to her post actually requested reassignment to Afghanistan! Give up the cushy conditions in a modern European city, and trade it for the poverty and physical danger found in Kabul. Anything to get away from that harridan!

The author of the news article linked to above says that such is the danger when amateurs meddle in a field that clearly calls for career diplomats. I think it shows the danger of passing out important positions to political supporters without first bothering to ask if they are suited for the job."

It certainly doesn't sound good when career officers are jumping ship to Kabul and other rough neighborhoods to get out of Luxembourg. A lot of officers spend many years building up the kind of street cred and "equity" (by serving in tough posts) necessary to get a plum like Luxembourg.

Consider, for a moment, some of the likely French-speaking garden spots an officer might go just for the chance of a Luxembourg, Brussels, or Paris.

The thing about going to Kabul or other AfPak/Iraq posts is that it's sort of like hitting the Re-Set button or "Pass Go - Collect $200." These days you can link that service to onward assignment at, hopefully, one of your "dream posts" (think Paris, Brussels, Luxembourg-under-new-management).

re: "INTELLIGENCE FAILURE"

Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit ("I can take vacations, etc., and not feel any gnawing need to be at the computer.") demonstrates that the finger-pointing has already begun.

-----

Remember always the following:

There are no operational failures. Never a failure of policy. Never a failure of decision-making or leadership.

These are always successes.

Failures are always intelligence failures.

-----

"It's because of you people that I cannot get outside!

It's always your fault. You are not capable of handling...

To take orders from me, who is..."

re: "U.S. Foreign Service: on the front lines in Egypt"

Michael Singh at Shadow Government ("Notes From The Loyal Opposition") gives credit where it's due.

Money quote(s):

"Looking after the welfare of Americans abroad -- particularly during a crisis -- is one of the core missions of the State Department and a foremost responsibility of U.S. diplomats stationed overseas. U.S. diplomats are rarely noticed, much less celebrated, but their service and sacrifices deserve the American people's recognition.

When a crisis such as this erupts, the local U.S. Embassy will scramble to understand and report to Washington on events and offer its advice on U.S. policy. But it will also initiate a massive effort to account for and care for American citizens, both those who wish to leave and those who remain behind. Right now at the Cairo airport, our Foreign Service officers and other U.S. personnel are putting in days-long shifts to assist Americans who want to leave Egypt. The same officers who are responding to Washington's demands for analysis of opposition figures and the latest reports on protests in Tahrir Square are also comforting weary travelers, serving them food and water, and packing them on to evacuation flights.

Among those the officers have seen off are their own families, whom the State Department yesterday ordered to depart Egypt. The farewells are hasty -- families must leave quickly once the order is given -- and sometimes do not take place at all if the employee is needed elsewhere. The families do not know when they will be able to return, if at all, and must make accommodations for housing and schools on the fly. When their families are long gone, the officers stay on to perform vital work to advance U.S. national security.

The experience of the officers in Cairo is hardly unique -- many diplomats are stationed at embassies and consulates overseas where conditions do not permit their families toaccompany them. Alongside other civilians and of course members of the military, they make daily sacrifices to serve their country. Few Americans are actually aware of what they do, and fewer still will ever have need to call upon their help. But they are there when Americans require, and for Americans stranded in Egypt, that is a deep relief."

re: "Why the surprise?"

Richard at EU Referendum ("To discuss issues related to the UK's position in Europe and the world") keys on some areas of perennial interest to those in the intelligence professions.

Money quote(s):

"Diplomats and intelligence agencies, the strap to his piece reads, often tell ministers what they want to hear – and overvalue secret sources of information.

Secret intelligence services, naturally enough, writes Norton-Taylor, want to emphasise secret intelligence – a product which only they, in their special and privileged role, can offer. As a result, they have seriously underestimated what can be gleaned from "open sources". "

Yes and no.

There's such a thing as "intelligence fusion." That's where information from many types of sources and collection methods gets "fused" into an "all-source" product. Army folks may recall the acronym "ASAS," which is the All-Source Analysis System.

But I digress.

"All Source" intelligence includes open sources or "OSINT."

So if your analysts are on the ball, this gets included into your final product.

Ideally.

"Britain's diplomats and spooks, in common with all western intelligence agencies, also spectacularly failed to foresee the fall of the Berlin wall. Thus, he says, they must in future pay much more attention to "open sources", what they can hear on the Arab street, and what they can read, notably on the internet."

As the man says, this is something we can do better.

Lastly:

"Anyone who relies merely – or even mainly – on the MSM for their "take" on what is happening in this country, or for their general news of events, would end up very seriously ill-informed. Yet it remains the case that the political "set" in this country rely for their information on such conventional sources, and are still unduly influenced by the MSM.

However, we cannot leave it there, without also referring to what could be called mindset myopia. Our "élites" very often do not realise what is happening because they already think they know, and therefore do not avail themselves of credible information sources, because they believe they know better. They don't look for information because they don't see the need for it. And that is what really catches them out.

Either way, when our revolution eventually arrives – in whatever form it finally takes – our politicians and other agencies will also be caught by surprise. If they had the ability to see it coming, they would also have the ability to head it off.

Almost by definition, therefore, revolutions must always come as a surprise to those at whom they are aimed. The happen because those people are so out of touch that they are capable of being surprised."

Richard hits very close to a recurring dilemma for intelligence professionals: how do you get your policy-maker to value your product when they are already relying on other, outside sources, the ones they've learned to value throughout their political lives?

The case of a decision-level official who already assumes they know all there is to know is just too nightmarish to comtemplate. One needs to watch World War II movies to appreciate just what that does for a nation.

re: "It Is 3 AM And The Phone Is Ringing In The White House "

Hugh Hewitt at the Hewitt Blog is not being too alarmist.

Money quote(s):

"Right now the late '70s are back in reruns with Egypt playing the role of Iran. At a minimum, increase the security at the U.S. Embassy."

Not to be too snarky, but I'm curious what exactly are the sort of measures Mr. Hewitt had in mind for this.

Think about it. Seriously. Airports closed. Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating in the area where the embassy is located. Tanks in the streets.

Basic questions like what sort of security, where does it come from, how does it get there, is it supportable and for how long?

Trust me, there are people whose professions are to ask, and have the answers, for this sort of thing.

re: "Undiplomatic"

Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex.") has his hat off to the State Dept.

Money quote(s):

"Davis was actually driving the vehicle as he shot back at the gunmen. Which is harder than it looks.

So, hats off to the foreign service and their unexpectedly high standards of marksmanship!"

Re: " “There Is No Birth Certificate In Hawaii” "

Rand Simberg at Transterrestrial Musings ("Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!") muses about recent non-developments and non-discoveries by the governor of Hawaii.

Re: "A New Twist in Obama Birth Certificate Mystery"

Pamela Geller at Atlas Shrugs ("bringing you the news you will not hear from the mainstream media, providing original reportage, covering little-reported events of great import, and giving an unblinkingly honest examination of global affairs") has some speculative analysis on this subject.

Just some more "best guesses" by folks who don't know anything the rest of don't already know, but at least they aren't totally off-the-rails about it.

re: "Indefinite detention: We knew this was coming"

TigerHawk ("thoughts of the day on international affairs, politics, things that strike us as hilarious and personal observations") has some news about unlawful, er, indefinite detention.

Money quote(s):

"(T)he Bush administration was not taking all that flack for nothing, and that there is no practical alternative in dealing with unlawful combatants in a stateless war."

&

"The sophisticated media also knew, of course, but was never going to admit it."

re: "The Effects of WikiLeaks on Those Who Work at the State Department"

Samuel Witten at Opinio Juris ("a forum for informed discussion and lively debate about international law and international relations") has written the best two-paragraph explanation of a cable that I've ever seen.

Money quote(s):

"The diplomatic cable, a tool used by many governments, provides an official channel for U.S. diplomats abroad to report back to Washington and for Washington to instruct diplomats on how to approach relationships with foreign governments, the public overseas, international organizations and many other audiences. Many cables to and from our diplomatic posts include analyses of complex issues of foreign policy and diplomacy. Others provide candid recommendations of ways to advance U.S. interests against steep odds in dangerous and uncertain places. Some seek urgent guidance and identify sensitive information and options to address contingencies. Others offer insights into the character and motivations of foreign leaders, potential U.S. allies and opponents, opposition political parties, human rights activists, and dissidents.

Cables are a fundamental part of the State Department’s core culture, an essential component of how State Department diplomats and lawyers do business. The process of obtaining “clearance” on a proposed cable within the State Department (or from other concerned federal agencies) ensures that messages and instructions reflect all of the interests at stake and have the benefit of cumulative experience. Cables also create an official, historical record of the U.S. Government’s international actions and help ensure accountability for decisions."

"When overseas, I sent cables discussing and analyzing meetings or negotiations I attended or seeking guidance from Washington on possible options and instructions. When in Washington, where I was based, I made every effort to ensure that our outgoing cables were clear and detailed enough that colleagues around the world would benefit from precise analysis and assistance.

Damage from WikiLeaks disclosures go well beyond the immediate consequences reported in the media. The releases undermine the essential ability of our foreign affairs professionals to do their jobs. The leaks compromise the acquisition and flow of information around the world, reduce the effectiveness of our international outreach, and may put lives at risk."

"Putting aside the anti-Americanism of some supporters, there are those who suggest that the leaks promote a kind of openness, giving the public a better understanding of how diplomacy operates and clarifying the interests and goals of the United States and foreign governments. Some may argue that the knowledge of a potential leak – which always exists – may enhance the analytic and reportorial rigor of our diplomats abroad. In this respect, some suggest that the cables, overall, provide an advertisement for a State Department full of excellent professionals advocating and defending American interests around the world. There is certainly much truth in the latter. But to the extent there is any value in these public disclosures, that value, in my opinion, is far outweighed by the substantial negative impacts."

&

"The U.S. has aggressively sought to contain the diplomatic and strategic damage resulting from WikiLeaks disclosures. In this respect, any negative consequences for U.S. foreign policy that have resulted from WikiLeaks could well be compounded by additional disclosures, but may be ameliorated in many cases by the passage of time and subsequent events. Similarly, some of the negative professional and practical consequences at the State Department and in our international relations will improve over time.

That said, the profound unease and anxiety about the breach in our system through the unauthorized leaks may never disappear entirely. For the foreseeable future, foreign officials and private persons will understandably be worried about whether their dialogues with the State Department will be secure. Some candor and critiques by our own professionals may go unwritten or held in narrow channels of distribution."

If no one is willing to talk to us, we’re not going to be able to do much in the way of promoting mutual understanding. Or much of anything else.

The impact of this simply can’t be over-stated. No one can possibly believe their identities and the information they provide us will be held in confidence. We simply will no longer be trusted to pass information to the right ears and no further.

Any cable-drafter already knows that the potential readership of any given cable is quite large. Potentially, anyone within (and in some case outwith) the State Dept. possessing the right accesses could become a reader, either today or next week, next month, or next year. Cables are forever, communications-of-record; if nothing else their contents will become summarized and encapsulated in reports which trickle ever upwards.

Nothing levels our side of the playing field quite so drastically as when our mail is being read, even long after the fact. Candor and plain-talking are essential or you’re just spinning your wheels.

Time and again I’ve instructed report-writers to tell the facts, what they know and how they know it, what they saw and heard, as distinct from what they think and deduce from it (but include that too, clearly differentiated) and let “higher” do the second-guessing from their position of access to a wider ranger of information. Don’t self-adjudicate.

I must confess I’ve done this myself, pre-Wikileaks. Not writing everything I know or have heard about something, but passing the information (less the specific identity of a source) to “higher” through channels as secure (actually, in hindsight much more secure) as cable traffic but without the same paper trail. I thought I was just being paranoid about protecting my sources, but it’s true what they say: Paranoia Is Its Own Reward.

It also deprives “higher” with the fuller appreciation of that information which knowing the actual source can provide.

Last Week's Links

Joerg Wolf at Atlantic Review ("A Press Digest for Transatlantic Affairs") in "The U.S. is increasingly looking to new partners."

Money quote(s):

"For the European Union stating the obvious is already progress."

So it is.

-----

Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex. Enjoy!") in "Now Comes the Purge."

Money quote(s):

"(A)ll work is easy if somebody else has to do it."

If at first you don't succeed, don't worry about it: someone else will do it for you.

"(O)ne of the joys of punditry: One need only have a strongly held opinion, not any subject matter expertise."

CAA really tries, you understand, to opine on those subjects he actually knows something about.

"The general is targeted because he gave his soundest military advice, based upon decades of personal experience, to the National Command Authority, as he was duty bound to do."

So are we all, by our oaths of office, duty bound to give the best professional opinions we can provide, not merely parrot whatever the popular party line or flavor of the month might be.

&

"It is not enough for Mr. Cohen to win the policy fight. Those who opposed him cannot have done so from any principled standpoint, and they are therefor unfit to serve. The ranks must be purged."

-----

Lt.Col P at OPFOR ("Fair Specimens of Citizen Soldiers") at "Marine Corps Commandant Has To Stay."

Money quote(s):

"I detect also a note of good-war-ism; you know, those old WWII movies were great because WWII was the last good war, not what we have today with these awful provincial people and their tacky state university degrees who beat up on various Third Worlders and refuse to love gays."

WWII was also the last good war, in certain circles, because the socialists (at least of the non-NDSAP variety) were on the same side as the U.S., (at least once the national socialists in Germany launched their attack on the soviet socialists in Russia and her near-abroad).

(Until they did that, at least once Stalin and Hitler had made their mutual non-aggression pact, WWII wasn't a "good" war at all.)

(History matters. Especially the inconvenient kind.)

"(T)hose of us who have served know that Hollywood can't match reality, and that the real soldiers and Marines in the platoons aren't simply pets or mascots for the chattering classes."

Remind me to discuss the whole "hero" phenomenon sometime.

"When he writes "education and training" what he really means is "re-education and indoctrination." Those who lived through the purge-trial aftermath of Tailhook will know what I mean."

Active duty personnel can look forward to eve more hours and hours of mandatory "homosexual awareness" training. Yes, that's what it's actually called and has been going on since Pres. Clinton signed DADT into law way back when.

Good thing nobody needed any of those training hours to prepare them to fight a war or anything.

"The Commandant is stating his considered professional opinion that repeal of this law will have a detrimental effect on the combat readiness of his service, and furthermore that doing so during active overseas operations is a particularly ill-conceived course of action. Remember how long this man has been in uniform, and the positions he has held. He understands his Corps, and what makes it tick, and he has been entrusted with shepherding it through the next four years of war."

&

"Unit cohesion keeps the force together when things aren't going well. Unit cohesion is born of hundreds of Americans dedicated to a single cause, welded together into a fighting instrument by hard realists who do sometimes hold contrary opinions. But what has no place in the realm of unit cohesion, or of any aspect of combat readiness, is compulsory acceptance of behaviors that most find distracting at best and deviant at worst. The gay soldier or Marine who subordinates his behavior for the greater good of his unit gets treated like a soldier or Marine, like one of the family."

-----

Uncle Jimbo at Blackfive in "Concealed carry is counterterrorism."

Money quote(s):

"We simply do not have the resources to expect that we will have police wherever the terrorists decide to attack us. They have obviously figured out that our soft underbelly is nationwide. What is going to happen when the jihadi maroons stop failing at bomb-building and decide to succeed at firing a gun into a crowd? Ignorant as these goat-raping clowns are, they can pull that off. At that point any who is not armed is a victim in waiting. But if the swine happen to hit a food court at the Mall where I am having a snack, it will turn out quite differently.

At the risk of revealing my true arrogance, I do not recognize the right of any individual or group to disarm me. So regardless of what rules petty bureaucrats may enact, I will retain my right to self defense."

Which is why the terrorists will lose against us in the end. Badly.

"This type of response is most likely to happen in red state areas and if the jihadis had any intellectual firepower they would concentrate their efforts in Chicago, NYC and DC where the government has disarmed the populace."

&

"The bottom line is that when seconds count the police are minutes away. Yet the unorganized militia is all around, kinda like the Founders figgered."

Personally, I prefer the formulation "Militia of One."

-----

Bing West at the Small Wars Journal blog ("facilitates the exchange of information among practitioners, thought leaders, and students of Small Wars, in order to advance knowledge and capabilities in the field") in "Bigotry as Opportunism."

Money quote(s):

"Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen wrote that the Commandant of the Marine Corps “is one step short of being a bigot.” Cohen, who strongly supports homosexuals in the military, insisted that the Commandant be fired because he held a different view. According to the dictionary, ‘a bigot is one who is strongly attached to his view of politics and intolerant of those who differ.’ It is Cohen, not the Commandant of Marines, who defines the word bigot."

"His column is a clarion call to incite the very divisiveness the legislation was intended to expunge."

&

"The best way to treat a bigot is to ignore his opportunistic self-promotion. Let the Washington Post correspondents who risk their lives alongside Marines deal with Cohen and his warped journalistic ethics."

-----

Lex at Neptunus Lex ("The unbearable lightness of Lex. Enjoy!") in "Green Light."

Money quote(s):

"Ivy League schools provided the services with gifted officers for the front lines, many of whom served heroically in combat before coming home, tempered by both experiences, to build a great nation. It also provided undergraduate students who lacked the money and connections a fully-funded opportunity for a first rate education at our country’s flagship universities. All of that ended at certain Ivies during the culture turmoils of the late 1960s."

The Ivies have a golden opportunity to make themselves relevant again to the nation beyond the academic ghettos and law firms of the Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Washington corridor. Or they can simply beclown themselves in an orgy of self-parody. I expect a mixed set of results, with perhaps a third of them taking the opportunity to redeem themselves.

"Now that the dreadful discrimination of DADT has been swept into the ash bin of history, the rationale for the prohibition against on-campus ROTC has lost whatever veneer of plausibility it once held."

And a thin veneer that was, a mere vapor of substance.

&

"(I)t is not just the military who have shifted south (and west). The country is doing so, or at least those who can afford to; those who are not immobilized by joblessness or the paucity of after-tax income traceable to Ivy League social and economic theories. Both the working and entreprenurial classes have seen what modern day political liberalism has to offer and are voting with their feet. The heart of America is shifting south, and it does not much surprise that the military is moving with them.

As for the Ivies, it appears the rest of us have decided that, when it comes to building and defending our nation, we might just have to do it without them."

Relevance, to coin a phrase, matters.

Happy New Year!

It's that time again.

Time for resolutions.

Time for predictions.

Lessee what's in the bag-o-tricks today......

Resolved: Try (try, try, try, really try) to be a better person. A better husband, a better officer, just better.

(Better doesn't necessarily mean nicer.)

Predictions:

Prediction #1. The economy will improve. Or at least stabilize. It won't be worse than it is now in twelve months time.

The greatest American political invention of them all wasn't really the filibuster or gerrymandering or even a written bill of rights. It was checks and balances among the three co-equal branches of government combined with a bicameral legislature.

So rather than a single economic politico-ideology driving the national economy off of a cliff, and then doing it again, and then doing it again, and then doing it again.... so rather than that, for another year in a row, instead of that there's going to be some economic stability. And from that stability will come recovery.

(Actually, I believe a written bill of rights was truly the greatest of American political inventions, but work with me here.)

Prediction #2. In Hollywood, some other directors than the those who just remade True Grit will try their hand at making westerns. Some will be remakes. Others new. The ones which bow the least in the direction of current fashions in political correctness will do best at the box office.

Prediction #3. The SecState will make a major announcement regarding her political future which will surprise only those who haven't followed her political career to date.

(No, I have no insider knowledge of this; I'm just making a prediction here.)

Prediction #4. North Korea will do something outrageous which kills a bunch of people, most likely South Koreans. And be rewarded for it.

(Item: actions or behavior which are rewarded or subsidized are those actions or behaviors which will increase.)

Prediction #5. Absent major outside intervention (Iran, I'm looking at you), U.S. military and reconstruction operations will continue to be, in the main, successful.

(This success will not necessarily translate to better conditions for Iraqi Christians or other minorities, except where under local protection, as in the Kurdish north)

Prediction #6. NATO partners will continue to reduce their footprint in Afghanistan. Gen. Petraeus and his troops (including airmen, sailors, and marines) will bravely struggle on, in the main successfully.

Prediction #7. Some knucklehead wannabee terrorist will manage to get something on a plane, despite current TSA security measures, which results in yet more intrusive security measures being enforced against the traveling public.

Prediction #8. The DoD will begin transitioning from the Clinton-era DADT policies. Ivy League school resumption of ROTC training will occur only sporadically and armed services recruiting stations in Greenwich Village, Key West, and San Francisco will not require rapid deployment of recruiter reinforcements to handle a tsunami of new recruits.

(Notice how I didn't use the word "surge" here. "Surge" is so last decade.)

Prediction #9. CAA will continue to post but not daily nor even necessarily weekly, as the press of official duties continues to dictate otherwise.

Prediction #10. Iran will continue its nuclear weapons development program, remaining just 1-5 years from a successful test, as they have been for at least two decades now.